In Westminster, Keir Starmer can breathe a sigh of relief that the front pages have not splashed over Mandelson’s further developments or Labor tensions for the first time in a week. But something has changed over the last few days. You saw it in the candor of Ed Miliband and Pat McFadden on the morning broadcast round, Yvette Cooper’s clipped answers to MPs, even in the eyes of Rachel Reeves sitting behind Starmer on the front benches.
For weeks, we have been stuck in a pattern in which the majority in the cabinet – “Praetorian Guard” – were determined to save the prime minister. Now, “the cabinet has given up,” as one adviser says. They are horrified by his judgment in sacking Olly Robbins and now expect Starmer to never escape the Mandelson story. Next week there will be more committee hearings, more revelations from the Mandelson files to come and Starmer himself is likely to face the privileges committee, as Boris Johnson did. “This will never end,” concludes an insider.
A column this morning from my old colleague Patrick Maguire at Times sets out the emerging consensus among a critical mass of ministers: that, as Britain strongly rejects Labor – in all different ways, to different parties, in different parts of the country – in May’s and local elections, Starmer “must be done to set a timetable for an orderly transition, with a new leader in place for the conference”. The string of messages I received last night showed that many insiders agreed.
But the operative words are “made for”. Where is Starmer’s own mind in all this? I spoke to several people close to him last night and this morning, and they all told me the same thing: as far as they know, he still intends to fight in any leadership race that comes up. The defiant line we were fed by Downing Street sources months ago – that Starmer will oppose any challenge against him – has not changed.
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Of course, a line is a line until it’s not a line. In fact, it would be too early for Starmer’s allies to hint that he might agree to leave after May: that’s a fortnight’s talk, when the election is over and Labor people up and down the country are not relying on the leadership to hold it together. No one in Labor would condone the party leadership for sending candidates into battle without a leader, and no Labor MP or leadership hopeful wants to destroy the party’s base across the country more than can be avoided. Things may be simmering, but even people desperate to get rid of Starmer don’t want things to boil over until this crucial election is over.
But once they are, what will Starmer think? He may well change his mind to fight, or maybe he can be “made” to change it by the sheer force of a unanimous cabinet and an angry party telling him how it will be. But there are still some loyal guards in the ranks of the cabinet. And for months, Starmer’s closest allies have been telling me how determined he is to fight. Something has changed in the cabinet. But will it also change in Keir Starmer?
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; get it every morning by subscribing to Substack here
(Further reading: ‘Ed Davey is too beige’: Inside the Lib Dems election campaign)
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