Donald Trump has repeated his criticism of Keir Starmer. The president is upset that the prime minister continues to refuse to authorize any further British involvement in the Iran war unless he considers it “in the British national interest”. This time, the dispute centers on sending British warships to the Strait of Hormuz.
But today I want to talk about the chancellor. This afternoon, Rachel Reeves will present her latest vision for Britain’s economy in the Mais Lecture at the Bayes Business School.
The annual lecture has been given by eight of Britain’s 15 chancellors since 1979. Reeves is unique because, as of today, she becomes the only person to hold the Mais Lecture twice. It gives us a side-by-side comparison of what she said last time, as shadow chancellor in the run-up to the general election, and what she says now after two years at the Treasury.
Last time, she laid out a vision of “security” based on three “prongs” – stability, investment and reform – inspired by the approach of the Biden White House, which at the time was enjoying an annual growth rate Britain could only dream of.
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Today, she is expected to make three “bets” – as she described them in a weekend interview – on the rapid adoption of AI, closer alignment with the EU and regional growth. Critics will learn the language of gambling over planning.
But Reeves hasn’t completely given up on Biden-inspired security, even if it has taken a rhetorical backseat since Trump beat the Democrats in 2024, despite their economic record. Today, she will repeat the three points of her last lecture. Reeves is expected to say, with a nod to the Iran war: “In this changing world, Britain is not powerless. We can create our future. Our method is stability, investment and reform – through an active and strategic state.”
The last incumbent Chancellor to deliver the Mais Lecture was Rishi Sunak. That was in early 2022, before he resigned from the government and, in a roundabout way, eventually became prime minister. In his lecture, he promised lasting tax cuts and “a new entrepreneurial culture.” It did not really materialize during the following two years. Why? Part of the explanation lies in the fact that Sunak delivered his lecture on the day Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As Reeves speaks amid the crisis in Iran and talk of fuel rationing in Britain, she will be determined not to let history repeat itself.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; get it every morning by subscribing to Substack here
(Further reading: The rise of the undecided voter)
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