As the 2027 French presidential election approaches, there is only one certainty: the far right

PARIS (CN) – France’s growing success The far-right National Rally is causing a scramble ahead of the 2027 presidential election: Other parties are working on the assumption that there is only one seat left in the two-candidate runoff.

“The election campaign has started, but it is starting in a confusion because there are so many candidates … because the political parties are relatively weak,” said Luc Rouban, senior researcher at Sciences Po Paris. “In the second round, there will inevitably be someone from the National Assembly”.

It is still uncertain who this someone from the party known as RN will be. In March 2025, leader Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling millions of EU funds. Part of her sentence was a five-year ban on running for public office. She appealed; A final decision on her eligibility will be made on July 7.

But there is a backup plan. If she can’t run, she The 30-year-old was defending Jordan Bardella will. He has been widely credited with normalizing the RN, long seen as taboo in France due to its roots in overt anti-Semitism, spread by the late party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen – Father of Marine Le Pen.

It is not unusual for the RN to reach the final stretch of the campaign. IN President Emmanuel MacronThe previous two successful contests, he faced Le Pen. In France, voting takes place in two rounds; if a candidate does not receive more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the two candidates with the most votes go to a runoff.

However, these elections are coming at a time when the RN has more public support and political strength than ever before. And so far, fewer candidates are building the same momentum.

When asked to analyze the current state of France’s political climate, experts chose a number of bleak words: Fragmented, anxiety-ridden, insecure and disjointed, to name a few. There are cracks all over the board.

The left is divided between the extreme left Leader of Unyielding France Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has announced his candidacy and that of the more moderate Greens and Socialists, who have not yet chosen their candidates.

Mélenchon is a controversial figure who advocates the end of capitalism and eventually revolution. Although he presents himself as a former Trotskyist, according to Rouban he is more of a Stalinist, ruling Unyielding France with an iron fist.

“He represents what I would call an insurgent, revolutionary left,” Rouban said. “He’s very brilliant, he’s very cultured, he’s a very skilled speaker – a great orator – but he’s scary and that’s clear in the polls … Inflexible France is the party that causes fear, the one that’s seen … as a party that’s dangerous for democracy.”

During the 2022 French presidential election, Mélenchon won 21.95% of the vote in the first round, just behind Le Pen’s 23.15%. However, since then his party has become problematic. After Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, its rhetoric has been widely perceived as anti-Semitic and radical.

“There is something new about Mélenchon — the way he openly embraces the fact that he is dividing the country,” said Jean-Yves Camus, a political scientist, researcher and author specializing in far-right movements across Europe. “But he is succeeding in something important; leading a party whose approval rating is lower than the RN, which means that there are more French people who consider France Unbowed a threat to democracy than there are who consider the RN a threat to democracy – this is really something absolutely incredible.”

At the centre, a distrust of Macron has generated skepticism towards him former prime minister Gabriel Attala possible candidate.

“The fact that he is the heir to Macronism is still a problem for him, because deep down, people are very critical of Emmanuel Macron,” Rouban said. So the ‘neither right nor left’ solution is of no interest to many people today.”

However, polls show that former moderate right-wing prime minister Edouard Philippemay have the best shot. Olivier Costa, a political scientist and director of the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po, thinks Philippe fits the profile: He has the right political experience and charisma to be president.

But Camus believes his previous ties to Macron could also be a hindrance.

“If the polls are to be believed, there is a feeling that the second round will pit Edouard Philippe, who is politically linked to Emmanuel Macron, against the RN candidate… But at the same time, every poll and opinion poll shows that the favorite word among the French now is ‘change’,” Camus said. “The change, which could mean that anyone who has held office during Emmanuel Macron’s two terms, or is running for the presidency for a third or fourth time, will effectively be rejected by the French people.”

Although several names of right-wing politicians are being floated – including former interior minister Bruno Retailleau – it is unclear whether any can muster the support needed to challenge the RN.

There are likely to be at least 10 candidates; however, this election comes as the general public is largely disillusioned with the political system.

“There is a great appetite for democracy and, at the same time, a great distrust of politicians,” explained Ludovic Renard, a professor of political science at Sciences Po Bordeaux. “For me, the criteria are not very clear about what is expected of a political figure.”

According to Costa, the landscape has dissolved into a crisis; There is widespread distrust of political parties, leaders and institutions, and extremes of the spectrum are exploiting this.

“The context of this election is one of great uncertainty about the forces at play and the candidates,” he said. “Since the system is really breaking down, I’d say a lot of candidates believe this could be their chance to get elected, which adds to the confusion.”