As Keir Starmer spent the heatwave weekend at the Checkers pondering his future, a sense of inevitability grew around his resignation. He had insisted on Friday (19 June) that he would not be going anywhere. But over the weekend, friends and allies have come to the conclusion that the game is up, and Starmer himself began to consider leaving. Donald Trump even announced Starmer’s impending resignation on his social media, stating it as fact.
However, while there is now a widespread expectation in Westminster that the Prime Minister will set out a timetable for his departure, possibly on Monday, I understand that Starmer had not made a final decision on Sunday, however inevitable it may seem.
There are several factors at play as Starmer decides what to do.
1. The first is simply that Starmer has learned, through trial and error, not to rush decisions. He has taken his time with most of the most important decisions in his leadership and has regretted the times he hasn’t, such as the sacking of Olly Robbins. “Some of his worst decisions have been made to meet the demands of certain news cycles,” says a Starmer ally. In the weekend’s “grace period” offered by Andy Burnham, a similar sense of inevitability and expectation is building, and Starmer is keen to take advice and really think about the consequences before jumping into something with huge consequences for himself, his family, the Labor Party and the country.
2. Starmer still doesn’t understand why he has to go. He’s looking around at the chaos caused by the people who’ve been trying to get him out of office for at least six months – Burnham, Wes Streeting, his once-loyal friend Ed Miliband – and thinks, as Starmer’s ally said above: “Wait, it’s not me who started this, it’s them!” He is angry at the damage he thinks has been done to the government during that time, with all the focus on Labor infighting and constant chatter about where the government is failing, rather than the alternative world he imagines in which loyalist ministers cheered for positive economic indicators, Labor rallied and the focus fell on Nigel Farage’s controversial £5m donation. In this context, I am told, Starmer is outraged that such a thing is now even being suggested it it would be one that would cause chaos or instability if it remained.
3. He really doesn’t think Andy Burnham is ready. Starmer resents the idea that he has to cede power to someone he doesn’t believe is ready for it. Burnham’s allies have made it clear privately that a handover in September would be their ideal time frame to allow the new leader to prepare for the job, as well as give Starmer time to leave with dignity, secure his legacy and serve a full two years as prime minister. But an ally compares that idea to Starmer, who was forced out, then asked to “look after the shop for three months while Andy learns his ABCs”. Some of Starmer’s allies see the idea as brazen and presumptuous on Burnham’s part and are wondering what might happen if Starmer released No. 10 with more at once.
(Further reading: The Makerfield Test)
