Britain wants to return to the European Union, if pollsters are to be believed. On the face of it, they are not wrong. YouGov has Rejoin at 55 percent and Stay Out at 33. BMG there is Rejoin on 48 and Stay Out on 34. Support for reunification has been consistently ahead since 2021 – effectively since Britain officially left the bloc.
This, in turn, has led some within Labor to start treating the issue less as a far-fetched hypothetical and more as a direct policy issue. But they shouldn’t throw caution to the wind. Support for Rejoin looks less like an active political movement than an expression of dissatisfaction with the Brexit results. Most polls show that a large majority believe that Brexit has gone wrong. However, this does not necessarily translate into enthusiasm for reopening the question.
Part of the explanation may be disengagement. Leave voters – and groups demographically similar to them – appear less engaged with constitutional issues than they were a decade ago. A gap in enthusiasm can produce voting advantages that are not necessarily related to the terms of the referendum. There is also a broader political calculation at work. For some strategists, reopening the European debate under the numbers associated with the current Labor leadership risks creating more political friction than benefits. At a time when the cost of living remains the dominant concern for voters, the return to Brexit could be interpreted less as renewal and more as a rehashing of old arguments.
There may be a time to reconsider the issue of Reunification. In a climate of economic pressure and political fatigue, many would argue that it is not. This makes the fact that the conversation is now re-emerging self-evident.
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Enter Wes Streeting.
In comments made during what many interpreted as an early positioning exercise for a future leadership contest – although not officially presented as such – the former health secretary spoke of the need for “a new special relationship” with the EU and suggested Britain could one day be brought back in.
Streeting has publicly confirmed that he would oppose a post-Keir Starmer Labor leadership if and when the opportunity arises. His comments were followed by renewed attention to comments made by Andy Burnham. Speaking at the Labor conference last year, Burnham also spoke positively of the prospect of Britain one day returning to the European Union.
None of this is particularly surprising. Senior Labor figures are generally seen as more sympathetic to Rejoin than Brexit. But time has raised eyebrows. The debate has emerged against the backdrop of what could become one of Labour’s most politically important parliamentary elections in recent years – in a country with a strong Brexit identity and one that has since moved heavily towards reform.
This has created an opening for opponents. The argument for reform is straightforward: the job figures are signaling a return to old political priorities. The framing is familiar – another attempt, they say, to reopen an established debate. Whether this argument holds is less clear.
One question is whether Leave-oriented voters are motivated enough by Europe to make it the electoral decider. If the criticism comes from Reform rather than Labor figures themselves, it may have more credibility with that audience. But for this to matter, Europe will likely have to become central to the perceptions of the candidate involved. At the same time, areas like Makerfield may not be as strongly pro-Leave as they once were.
The survey by More in Common suggests that support for Rejoin may now be competitive. But this shift may reflect a lower engagement among former Larga voters than an active conversion to reunification. This distinction is important. A constituency may become more skeptical about the outcome of Brexit without becoming enthusiastic about reversing it.
Voters may believe that Brexit has failed, while remaining resistant to such declarations by political figures with whom they do not identify. This creates a challenge for both sides of the argument. Talk too much about Rejoi and the issue risks becoming politically stagnant again. Focus too much on attacking others to discuss it and the effect can be similar.
At present, Europe seems to be under more immediate concern. The strongest issues of the reform campaign remain immigration and the cost of living. These are the issues on which political attention and energy continue to be focused. Add Europe back into the mix and there is a risk that some voters will simply disengage.
Unless, of course, voters see the candidate himself as representative of a broader argument that they don’t want to reopen. Here is a recent political comparison. Critics have sought to attack Nigel Farage, the man famous for railing against the establishment, whatever that is. Because, journalists and leftist neighboring activists smile, don’t you understand? He is privately educated. He worked in the city. He has been in politics all his life! How much salary does he have now? He is as determined as you are!
And yet, after years of this, it has not managed to fly. Why? Not that it’s fake. But because it doesn’t matter to voters who might support him. Because 1) the wrong people are saying it; and 2) it is not the issue that matters to them when deciding how to vote.
And it is through this lens that I think we should consider Andy Burnham. Successful attacks on him must be popular and credible and delivered by people voters can listen to. Reform would get a fairer hearing at Makerfield than most. But campaigning on an issue that motivates very few current voters — and against a man who is already a household name — might just alienate supporters.
Reform will throw everything into this by-election. It could come down to the wire. And will criticize Burnham for the EU. But will this particular line of attack motivate more than a few hundred? I don’t think so.
(Further reading: Where does Nigel Farage get his money?)
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