The 2026 Scottish Parliament election, scheduled for Thursday 7 May, is a contest that feels familiar in outcome and unpredictable in detail.
Polls and forecasts suggest the Scottish National Party remains on course to finish as the largest party at Holyrood. Under the leadership of John Swinney, the SNP has seen support fall from previous levels following its poor performance in the 2024 general election. However, she maintains a clear lead over her rivals and is expected to retain most of her seats – albeit with a significantly reduced share of the vote.
Beneath the known general result lies a sharper uncertainty. Anas Sarwar’s Labor Party, once buoyed by a revival in 2024, now faces a more challenging environment. It has lost the momentum that saw it briefly overtake the SNP in votes and seats at Westminster. Decisions taken by the UK government under Keir Starmer are widely seen as having weakened Labour’s prospects in Scotland. Sarwar’s public criticism of Starmer has added another layer of uncertainty and with limited polling available, the extent of Labour’s support remains unclear.
The race for second place is now one of the defining features of elections. In previous cycles, the Scottish Tories – once led by Ruth Davidson – secured that position with strong unionist support. In 2026, however, the party appears to be in deep decline, with forecasts suggesting it could struggle to get even ten seats.
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Reform, led by Nigel Farage, has entered that vacuum. The party has risen from relative obscurity in Scotland to polls with around a fifth of the vote. While constituency wins remain unlikely, Reform is expected to capitalize on the regional list system, with predictions suggesting it could return more than a dozen MSPs – marking a significant new presence at Holyrood.
The Scottish Greens are also expected to make gains. Holding only a handful of constituencies, the party has focused its efforts on the list vote, where it is expected to achieve its strongest ever result, potentially electing a dozen or more MSPs. He is also targeting selected areas, including Edinburgh Central and parts of Glasgow, following a breakthrough first-time victory.
According to the Britain Predicts model, the overall balance of power is unlikely to change dramatically. A pro-independence majority – made up of the SNP and the Greens – is expected to be maintained, allowing the current governing bloc to continue. But the fragmentation of the opposition vote and the emergence of Reform indicate a political change.
(Further reading: The Scottish Labor campaign is already starting to fall apart)
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