When hunting for regime change, be careful what you shoot for


Shortly after Israeli and American attacks on Iran killed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and four members of his family, as well as other senior leaders, President Donald Trump called on the Iranians to stand upsaying, “To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are done, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did the same in a video addressing the Iranian people, saying“This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.” He called on them to “take to the streets with your millions and unite to overthrow the ruling system.”

However, far from producing the result they fervently hoped for, the regime that emerged, after further killings, is “younger, smarter, ruthless and tougher than ever.”

This is proven by the election of Khamenei’s second son as the new supreme leader. Mojtaba Khamenei (who was also injured in the attack on Khamenei’s residence) was elected by a unanimous vote of the Assembly of Experts – following pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with which he has close ties.

According to the Atlantic Council, “In political ideology and jurisprudence, Khamenei is are considered be tougher than his father.” Furthermore, notes a source in Tehran: “They just killed his family… He’s bloody now.”

Hardliners appear to have strengthened their grip further during the recent week-long funeral attended by millions. Ultra-hardline politicians are now publicly condemning Iranian politicians involved in peace talksincluding Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibad and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

This may be due to the resumption of Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days – despite the ceasefire – which has led to several new rounds of fighting between the US and Iran.

Desire for revenge

The mass burial event not only confirmed Khamenei’s status as a martyr, but also galvanized a tremendous desire for revenge in the Iranian populationwith mourners waving red flags of vengeance, chanting, “Death to America” ​​and “Death to Israel” and holding signs calling for the assassination of Trump and Netanyahu.

On the second day of events, to loud applause, Poet Mohammad Resouli declared ominously: “Why is the most bastard man in the world still alive? The world is no longer a good place for Trump. Why shouldn’t we kill the man who killed our imam? It would be a shame if we didn’t.”

The attacks on Iran were, in fact, a violation of international lawas they do not meet the requirements of Article 51 of the law United Nations The Charter regarding the right to self-defense but, instead, violates Article 2(4), which states: “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”

In an article in The Guardian, titled “Into the void: How Trump killed international law,” the authors argue that “amidst this chaos, there has been a consistent target for Trump’s scorn: the restrictions imposed by international lawand its value system built around national sovereignty, including the prohibition of the use of force…”

Actually, in an interview with the New York Times in January, Trump made this point clear: “I don’t need international law,” arguing that his power is limited only by “my morals, my mind.”

Khamenei’s assassination was also in violation of the generally accepted international taboo against killing leaders. In fact, Trump also violated domestic US law — in violation of Executive Order 11906, which states that “no employee of United States The government will engage or conspire to engage in political assassination.”

This order, signed by President Gerald Ford 50 years ago, followed congressional investigations into previous US assassination plots against foreign leaders, such as Fidel Castro. The presidents Jimmy Carter AND Ronald Reagan both expanded the scope of the ban, which is still in place, by removing the “political” qualification, making it illegal to “engage in assassination” per se.

Such taboos represent norms accepted by society that certain actions are prohibited and they play a crucial role in maintaining social order. Their codification in law helps to strengthen the regulation of social interaction. Breaking a taboo can have serious consequences that, in extreme circumstances, can lead to violence.

In an article titled, “Trump opens Pandora’s box of murder,” Columbia University historian Timothy Naftali writes:

As killing foreign leaders becomes easier for us, harming our own leaders apparently becomes easier for others as well. The international taboo against foreign political assassinations has had a stabilizing effect… To put a fine point on it, however tempting it may be to eliminate troubling foreign leaders, no policymaker in a democracy wants to incite acts of revenge that cost the lives of our own leaders.

Luca Trenta and Arturo Jiminez-Bacardi, in “Khamenei’s assassination and the dangerous death of the assassination ban“, suggest, “When a new Congress is sworn in next year, it should open an investigation into Khamenei’s operation, hold public discussions on the role of assassination in US foreign policy, and ultimately pass a statutory ban that clearly prohibits and criminalizes assassination once and for all.”

The slippery slope of gradually breaking taboos

It has been argued that both The US and Israel began to ease their restrictions on the killing taboo (or “targeted killings” as the US likes to call them or “eliminations” as the Israelis call them) in response to major terrorist attacks.

After the terrible events of 9/11and during the ensuing “war on terror,” it became common practice for the US to kill al-Qaeda operatives, including Osama bin Laden, as well as “terrorists” from other groups. Wikipedia provides a long list.

At the end of Trump’s first term, the US took a step closer to assassinating members of the government when, on January 3, 2020, killed Qasem Soleimani“the second most powerful man in Iran” who was commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force branch – justifying it by calling him a “terrorist” and offering a long list of grave abuses.

However, it was not long before the dangers of this action became apparent, as American authorities uncovered several plots by the Iranians to kill The Trump administration officials linked to the assassination, including Trump himself.

Israel also appeared to have stepped up its policy of “eliminations” after the horrific events of October 7, 2023, killing Hamas the leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran in July 2024 and Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September 2024, as well as many others. A long list is also available on Wikipedia.

Clearly, Trump is already feeling the heat from Khamenei’s assassination. IN a press conference at the end of the last NATO summit in Turkey, he said, “I am No. 1 in the list of murders on Iran,” joking that he would rather be “No. 1 on TikTok.”

He added: “They had leaders; they’re gone, and they had another set of leaders; they’re gone. Now they’ve got another set of leaders, they might be gone, who knows, and you know, I might be gone, because I’m their No. 1 target.”

Indeed, due to concerns for his safety, The Secret Service asked Trump to fly from Turkey to the UK on the old Air Force One (which he did) instead of taking the refurbished plane donated by Qatar, as there are questions about whether the new Air Force One has the same defense systems as the old one.

Iran’s strong desire for revenge is likely to plague Trump, Netanyahu, members of their administrations and their security services for the foreseeable future.

Surely it would have been much wiser to have respected international and domestic law and respected the taboo on killing leaders. After all, that’s what international law and established taboos are supposed to do – establish rules of behavior to protect social and international order.

like Trenta and Jimenez-Bacardi declares:

The political vacuums that follow the assassination of heads of state can lead to civil war, chaos, unrest and cycles of revenge. Khamenei’s assassination has already turned into a regional war and sparked a global economic crisis. Simply put, a new era of political assassinations is likely to make the world less safe.

Let’s hope the retaliation currently being sought in Iran never happens. Not only would it be tragic for an American president to be assassinated, but it could also be disastrous for Iran, as Trump has vowed to destroy the country if he is successful in killing him, saying: “That would be the end of it. I have given instructions, if they do it, hide, there will be nothing left.”

This should be taken seriously as it can lead to even more indescribable results, potentially breaking another crucial taboo – on the use of nuclear weapons.

Dr. Connie Peck is the founder of the United Nations Institute for Peacekeeping and Conflict Prevention Training and Research Program—the premier negotiation and mediation training program for UN staff and senior diplomats (now in its 33rd year). She is the author of a number of books and numerous articles and book chapters on conflict resolution and the nuclear threat.

– Shared dreams



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