In the early hours of August 5 (UTC), an abandoned SpaceX rocket scene is expected to occur crashes into the moon with about 8700 kilometers per hour. Launched in January 2025, the rocket delivered two commercial lunar landers towards Earth’s nearest neighbor.
With the job done, the rocket lacked the fuel to return to Earth or move into deep space. It remained in an unstable orbit until gravity finally set it on a collision course with the lunar surface.
The crash itself poses no danger. However, it signals a looming regulatory problem. As governments and companies race to build a permanent presence on the Moon, there is almost no practical framework for coordinating the activities that will forever reshape the lunar environment.
A rare scientific opportunity
For astronomers, the accident is a scientific possibility. While scientists know the rocket’s size, speed and roughly where it will hit, the impact presents a rare chance to study exactly what happens when something hits the moon.
The crash will provide data to improve computer models of how craters form and how lunar dust behaves. Researchers expect the impact to excavate a crater roughly 20-30 meters wide and eject a cloud of lunar dust, known as regolith, several kilometers above the surface.
Along with the dust cloud, the impact will also raise a tricky question: who will decide when humanity changes the Moon forever? Unlike Earth, the Moon has almost no atmosphere and no weather. As a result, any marks we leave behind will remain for a very long time.
More than 50 years after the Apollo moon landings, traces remain visible. If left intact, they can persist for thousands of years. The results of collisions or accidents will last just as long.
The division of the moon
Space agencies, private companies and researchers are all operating on the Moon at the same time.
Several countries have announced ambitions for long-term lunar science stations. Trading companies hope to deliver cargo, prospects for resourcesACTING lunar communication satellites and eventually support a enduring human presence.
As activity increases, so does the possibility that one mission may inadvertently affect another.
or high velocity lunar dust cloud created by a landing can damage equipment such as lunar bases or nuclear powered satellitescontaminate experiments, destroy a site of cultural importance, or even endanger human life on the lunar surface.
If a poorly planned mission wiped out the first human footprints on the Moon or damaged the Apollo spacecraft, it would be a loss of legacy for all of humanity.
By good fortune rather than good planning, the next rocket crash is expected to occur near the isolated Einstein Crater, far from many important lunar sites.
No one owns the moon, but some can still change it
SpaceX has inadvertently gained the power to change the Moon forever. There is almost no international process to decide if, when or where it should happen. At the center of the discussion is 1967 Outer Space Treatythe foundation of international space law with 138 signatory states.
According to this treaty, no country can claim sovereignty over the lunar surface. Instead, the Moon is considered a place to be explored and used for the benefit of all mankind. While the treaty prevents ownership, it says remarkably little about practical lunar governance or regulation of the lunar environment.
Unlike the Earth, the Moon has no equivalent UNESCO World Heritage Protectiondomestic heritage laws or environmental regulations.
It is the responsibility of each country to oversee its own space companies to ensure that they comply with national and international law. This means that the US government is, in theory, on the hook for SpaceX’s mistakes.
Lunar accidents can also open a company for him financial obligations and related risks. Damage to equipment or facilities could be in the millions of dollars. Accidental deaths can create criminal liability. Damage to a cultural or scientific site can risk international diplomatic incidents.
More transparency and coordination is needed
So how can the Moon be a usable space for companies, governments and scientists, while also being safe for all of humanity?
The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) and the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space are already exploring future solutions. Working groups are examining how countries can regulate space resources and better coordinate activities on and around the Moon.
But these institutions face a difficult reality. UNOOSA has only approx 40 staff with a global mandateand the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space it only meets for a few weeks each year.
At the same time, commercial enterprises are pouring huge sums of money into their race to the Moon, which means that the law has not kept pace with the needs of the lunar environment.
From principles to practice
The international community does not need new laws. He must use what he has.
Article XI i 1967 Outer Space Treaty already calls on states to share information about their space activities. This voluntary measure is quickly becoming an operational necessity.
A simple starting point would be a the monthly registry where states voluntarily identify planned activitiessurface infrastructure and places they consider culturally significant. A similar one The satellite registry is managed by UNOOSA. This supplemental lunar log would capture operational details that the satellite log was never designed to capture.
Aviation has a system of Aircraft announcements to advise pilots and flight operators of flight hazards and other time-sensitive information. Transport has Announcements for the Mariners.
The Moon needs something similar: Standardized notices to lunar operators. These will mark landing sites, rover paths, and dust-generating activity prior to mission launch.
Calls are growing for Fourth UN Conference on Outer Space. This would be a forum where governments, industry and scientists could build these tools.
While this rocket cannot be stopped, the next accident can be avoided. Whether that happens will depend less on rocket scientists and more on space lawyers and diplomats.
Gregory Radisic is a fellow at the Center for Space, Cyberspace and Data Law; Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law, Bond University
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