On Tuesday, April 7, US Vice President JD Vance held a rally at Budapest’s MTK Stadium in support of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The visit, part of Orbán’s campaign ahead of the April 12 general election, underscored the prime minister’s international status — but also the central danger of his campaign: that global politics still resonates with Hungarian voters.
Those picks may ultimately hinge on whether that bet still stands. After years of combining domestic dominance with international dominance, Orbán now faces an electorate increasingly shaped by economic stagnation and declining public services – raising the question of whether his geopolitically focused politics can still deliver electoral success.
Orbán is facing his most serious challenger since coming to power 16 years ago. After securing a constitutional majority, he and his Fidesz party rewrote electoral rules, reshaped the judiciary, consolidated control over most of the media and cultivated a network of loyal oligarchs, including his childhood friend Lőrinc Mészáros and his son-in-law István Tiborcz. Because of this uneven playing field, Hungarian elections are often described as “free but not fair”. However, Orbán has also enjoyed genuine popular support, holding a two-thirds parliamentary majority in three consecutive elections.
In the past decade, his electoral success and tough stance against immigration have made him a prominent figure on the international right. Admirers across Europe – from Matteo Salvini to Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders – have held up Orbanism as a model for Western governance.
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His influence extends to the United States, where Republicans often praise his Christian messages and family policies. Donald Trump checked it during his 2024 debate with Joe Biden. Institutional ties have also deepened: Budapest hosts an annual edition of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), and figures associated with Fidesz have established extensive ties to US conservative networks. Vance’s visit represents the culmination of these efforts.
During his speech, Vance accused the European Union of meddling in Hungary’s election and praised Orbán’s positions on energy and the war in Ukraine, calling him a “more important and constructive partner for peace than almost anyone else in the world.” He described Orbán as a defender of Western civilization: “There have been very few people willing to stand up for the values of Western civilization. Viktor Orbán is the rare exception,” he said.
Such rhetoric reinforces the core message of Orban’s campaign: that only he can protect Hungary from a dangerous and chaotic world. The government has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine is working to overthrow it and drag Hungary into the war. “What is at stake in this election is our ability to keep Hungary out of war,” Orbán told supporters at a rally in Székesfehérvár. “The Americans are now on the side of peace. But Europe still wants to continue the war – and if we don’t pay attention, it will drag us into it.”
Among those present, this message clearly resonates. Gábor, a supporter at the rally, said the war was a crucial issue. He argued that Péter Magyar’s openness to Ukraine’s EU accession could ultimately drag the bloc – and Hungary – into conflict. Another participant said she supported Orban because she wanted peace for future generations. “I want my grandchildren to live in peace and that’s why I don’t want to send any weapons to Ukraine,” she said.
However, Orbán’s campaign focus on geopolitics exposes a vulnerability. Hungary’s economy has stagnated in recent years, with investment falling and headline inflation peaking at around 25 percent in early 2023. The European Union is withholding roughly €17bn (£14.8bn) in funds for rule of law concerns – resources that have previously supported rising living standards. As economic pressures mount, voters seem increasingly focused on domestic conditions rather than international positioning.
That shift is fueling the rise of Orbán’s challenger, Péter Magyar. On the same day as Vance’s visit, Magyar held seven rallies outside Budapest, drawing large crowds even in small towns. His party, Tisza, now leads in several independent polls, with some suggesting it may even be closing in on a constitutional majority. A former Fidesz insider, Magyar rose rapidly after a 2024 scandal forced the resignation of President Katalin Novák. Since then, he has consolidated support across the political spectrum, positioning himself not as a liberal reformer but as a pragmatic critic of state decline. His campaign avoids abstract debates about democracy, focusing instead on health care, education, infrastructure and corruption. At rallies, that message seems to resonate strongly. In Dévaványa, a town of 7,000, Magyars packed the main square on a weekday afternoon – an unprecedented turnout for an opposition figure in recent years. Asked why voters are responding differently this time, a local organizer offered a blunt explanation: “Because they’re a lot poorer now.”
Magyar’s speeches often draw sharp contrasts between everyday hardships and the wealth of the elite. “In ten years, Lőrinc Mészáros … has become richer than the British monarchy in 400 years,” he told a crowd — a claim that overstates the comparison, although Mészáros’s wealth has indeed grown dramatically. He combines such rhetoric with vivid, emotional appeals highlighting failing infrastructure and poverty.
At a rally in Aszód, these themes were echoed by those present. An elderly woman said she was supporting Tisza because “the government did not spend EU funds on our pensioners or hospitals, but gave them to its oligarchs. That money should have been spent on us.” A man in his forties who had previously voted for Fidesz said he was now thinking of switching sides because “there have been a lot of thefts” and noted the worsening condition of hospitals and roads. Others shared similar frustrations. One teacher described “economic decay” and said public services had declined to the point where families increasingly rely on private health care. Another attendee recounted how her grandmother died awaiting surgery, highlighting the human cost of systemic strain.
Unlike Orbán, Magyar frames the European Union not in civilizational terms but as a source of tangible benefits. At his rallies, he talks about unlocking frozen funds to revive the economy and repair public services – offering a materially based alternative to Orbán’s geopolitical narrative. This election, then, is not just a contest between two politicians, but between two visions of politics itself: one focused on global conflict and national sovereignty, the other on economic recovery and day-to-day governance. Orbán has long relied on external threats to mobilize support, but that strategy depends on voters feeling they have something to lose. As living standards stagnate, this calculation may change.
However, Orbán retains structural advantages and any transition of power would be anything but simple. The Magyar coalition is ideologically diverse and largely bound by opposition to the current government. Meeting expectations – especially rapid economic improvement – would be a major challenge. Whether Orbán’s internationally focused policy can still provide domestic legitimacy is now the key question. For years, his model has appeared stable. These elections will test their limits.
(Further reading: If Viktor Orbán loses, global Orbanism is over)
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