Ukrainian drones are flying deep into Russia for it hit oil facilitiessending plumes of smoke visible from space and bringing toxic rain to Black Sea tourist destinations.
The attacks are aimed at cutting Moscow’s oil exports, a key source of funding for its heavy-handed occupation of Ukraine. But the economic impact is so far unclear, since the increase in the price of oil from Iran warand a related one the easing of US sanctionshave helped replenish the Kremlin’s coffers.
However, the range of attacks and their environmental impact is bringing the war home to ordinary Russians far from the front lines.
Oil spill on the road
Ukrainian drones have struck the oil refinery and export terminal in the Black Sea city of Tuapse on four occasions. in just over two weekssparking fires that prompted local evacuations and raised massive plumes of smoke. The city is approximately 450 kilometers (280 miles) from the front lines.
In a video posted by local governor Veniamin Kondratyev after the third attack on April 18, an emergency official said boiling oil products had spilled onto the road, damaging cars.
Ukraine said Thursday it hit an oil pumping station in Russia’s Perm region, more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) from Ukraine, two days in a row. Russian media reported the attacks, although Perm Governor Dmitry Makhonin said only that the drones had hit industrial facilities.
Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, one of Russia’s largest oil and gas export terminals, was hit three times in the space of a week in late March. It is more than 800 kilometers (500 miles) away from Ukraine.
In a broadcast a few weeks later, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko declared that the area around St. Petersburg, Russia’s second largest city, was a “frontline region” due to air threats.
Ukraine says the attacks have cost Russia billions
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has compared such attacks to international sanctions against Russia. They are seen as even more important now than Moscow is collecting windfalls BY the global energy crisis regarding the closure of Iran Strait of Hormuz.
Zelenskyy said on Friday that Russia has lost at least $7 billion since the beginning of the year as a direct result of attacks on its oil sector. Earlier in the week, he said Ukrainian intelligence shows a drop in exports from key oil ports such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
Drone strikes have also disrupted Russian oil refining capacity, while sanctions make it difficult to buy replacement parts, experts say.
But the full economic impact remains unclear as Russia benefits from the Middle East crisis.
Russian exports of crude oil and oil products rose by 320,000 barrels a day month-on-month to 7.1 million in March, the International Energy Agency said. Rising prices caused oil export earnings to nearly double, from $9.7 billion to $19 billion. It is unclear whether the April strikes will break this trend.
“US action against Iran has saved both the Russian oil sector and the federal budget from a crisis that was clearly developing in late February,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Consultancy.
Damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure has meanwhile been far less significant than the massive explosions would suggest, he said.
“If you hit an oil tank, especially an oil tank that’s not full, the vapors ignite and you get flames. So it looks pretty spectacular.” But that only delays shipments by a few days, he said.
“It’s a lot less damaging than hitting pumping stations or compressors or loading infrastructure. And that appears to be well protected. Tanks are not.”
Long-range drones stretch Russia’s defenses
The ability to strike key infrastructure deep inside Russia has highlighted Ukraine’s growing military capabilities and put pressure on Moscow’s already redundant air defenses. It has also forced more Russians to face the consequences of a war their government claims it is winning.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says its forces have more than doubled the range of their deep-strike capabilities since the full-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022. The increased range also allows drones to attack locations from different directions, complicating countermeasures.
“Drone strikes so far have been a very successful case of using simple technologies and domestically assembled technology to attack Russia in places that, at the beginning of the war, they simply would never expect to be attacked,” said Marcel Plichta, a Ph.D. candidate in the School of International Affairs at the University of St Andrews.
“That capability just didn’t exist” four years ago, he said.
It can have long-term consequences
Russian officials are usually reluctant to comment on deep attacks.
But the attacks in Tuapse and the images that followed gained traction in the Russian media. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of “serious environmental consequences” while insisting things were under control.
Officials warned that high levels of benzene, a carcinogen found in petroleum products, had been recorded in the air as the fires burned and urged residents to limit time outdoors.
Residents also reported extensively “black rain” drops of oil falling on their skin and clothes. Local news media posted images of stray dogs and cats with their gray colored coats. Oil spills along the coastline have covered birds and fish, and Russian media recently circulated images of beached dolphins.
These images are shocking for Russians used to vacationing on the Black Sea coast.
Vladimir Slivyak, co-chairman of the Russian environmental group Ecodefense, said it could have long-term consequences for human health and the region’s ecosystem.
“There is a lot of oil in the sea,” he said. “In the coming years, every storm will bring more oil pollution to the coast.”
There has not yet been a public reaction to the strikes, as the authorities do a blow to dissent. But that could change as the damage spreads.
“I think many people understand that there is a very big difference between what Putin says and what the regional authorities say, and what is actually happening,” Slivyak said.
By KATIE MARIE DAVIES Associated Press
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