Brussels’ decision-making is difficult to understand – that’s no secret. And it’s even more confusing when, from time to time, headlines announce the “end of negotiations” on a Brussels-Washington trade deal that was “sealed” last summer.
For non-trade hawks — or people whose lives and jobs don’t revolve around the tariff drama with Washington — recent developments this week can be somewhat confusing.
The EU-US trade deal is an undeniably huge deal. But in case the whole Turnberry thing has been complicated in various rounds of negotiations and the maximum, here is exactly what was negotiated this week in Brussels and why it does not mean that the transatlantic trade war is over.
The root of all evil: the trade surplus
Trump returned to the White House convinced that America’s trade relations were “unfair” and that tariffs are the cure for all economic problems. In the case of the EU, the 27-member bloc sells more goods to the US than vice versa.
And although in services, America there is a surplusTrump doesn’t think trade services “is real trade,” says David Henig, a UK-based trade expert at the European Center for International Political Economy.
The US president also points to products banned from the EU market due to production standards – chlorine-washed chicken, beef treated with hormones and the like.
American cars, too, are often either not authorized for the EU market or simply not desired by consumers. Think giant oil-hungry trucks trying to navigate the cobblestoned medieval European city centers.
“It conflates it with excess. Therefore, it’s unfair. Therefore, ‘I have to take action,'” Henig said.
That “action” quickly escalated. Threatened tariffs rose from 20% to Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” in April 2025 to the warnings of 200% dues in champagne.
After months of negotiations, the celebrity came handshake agreement in late July in Scotland, at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort, which cut tariffs to 15% if the EU cut its own tariffs to zero.
The deal that never was
But Turnberry was never a free trade deal. It was basically a political handshake dressed up as an almighty one “Joint Statement” the EU’s commitment to cut tariffs and buy billions in US energy, along with other promises on matters Brussels can’t even fully control.
The EU then had to implement its side of the deal through legislationreducing tariffs on hundreds of industrial and agricultural products. And that’s where Parliament came into the picture.
MPs never liked the deal. Parliament’s concerns grew even stronger after Washington appeared to breach its Turnberry commitments by raising tariffs on some steel and aluminum products above 15%.
Therefore, the chief socialist negotiator Bernd Lange asked tougher safeguardsincluding a “sunrise clause” that forces the Commission to suspend EU tariff cuts if the US does not comply.
The demands seemed reasonable. If Brussels is legally enforcing the deal, why should Washington be allowed to have its way through it?
Inside the chaos of the overnight trilogy
That’s what he did this week tripartite institutional negotiations so messy. The Parliament, Council and Commission entered one of those classic overnight negotiating sessions in Brussels, where everyone publicly says the talks are “constructive” while privately threatening institutional war over a verb in a legal paragraph.
Parliament was seeking wording that would have forced the Commission to automatically suspend tariff cuts if the US failed to lower steel tariffs as promised, the sources said. Euractiv.
But member states were fearful of further provocation by Trump. EU governments frightened that putting too many conditions on the handshake deal could trigger another tariff furor from Washington as the bloc tries to stabilize relations.
According to Henig, Parliament’s broader objective was also to preserve leverage for future negotiations and ensure that “the Commission does not give away too much”.
Sometime in the middle of the night, however, the Council got its way and the wording was softened. The final compromise simply “empowers” the Commission to act. In practice, Brussels can retaliate, but it doesn’t have to.
However, the MEPs considered it better than the initial situation of the lack of conditions related to the agreement. Parliament also provided safeguards and an expiry date of December 2029.
Lange seemed pleased with the result. “You can’t always get what you want, but if you ever try, you get what you need,” said the rock-loving MEP, quoting the Rolling Stones.
So… Is it finally over?
Maybe not. Turnberry is not really compliant with World Trade Organization rules and, until now, the legal basis in Washington has been swayed. “All US deals are legally questionable,” Henig said.
Even after the institutions finally reached a compromise, Henig warned that the EU will have “no more confidence that everything will be fine than before”.
The agreement still needs final votes in Parliament and approval by member states. And even if all this happens, no one in Brussels really believes that the tariff drama with Washington will go away.
So this is far from being the end all. More likely it is the beginning of a new state phase of permanent negotiations between Brussels and Washington.
Summary of news from the economy
MEPs are expected to back the US trade deal despite weaker protection measures. Lawmakers have strongly backed away from a safeguard suspension clause as the price for a compromise EU-US trade deal, which looks set to sail smoothly through the European Parliament despite reservations. Read more.
EU warns of a new Middle East energy shock to the economy. Brussels has sounded the alarm with a spring forecast “projecting weaker economic activity as conflict in the Middle East causes a new energy shock that rekindle inflation and shakes the economic sentiment”. Read more.
German borrowing costs rise as Iran’s energy friend starts to bite. German government borrowing costs have climbed to their highest levels in 15 years, as the energy shock caused by the US-Iran war stoked inflation fears in the eurozone’s biggest economy. Read more.
EU shocked as US eases oil sanctions on Russia. Brussels has criticized the US decision to extend the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil sales, warning that the move will only increase Moscow’s financial gains since the start of the war in Iran. Read more.
