Tony Blair has accused Labor of having an “almost infinite capacity for self-deception”. In a damning essay published by him Institute for Global Changethe former prime minister who left office nearly two decades ago launched a 5,700-word attack on the government and warned that unless the party retakes the center it will almost certainly lose the next election.
Blair has urged the government to cut welfare spending, move away from net zero and lift the ban on new oil and gas licences. He describes the government’s current position – quite disparagingly – as a “traditional ‘soft left’ Labor position”.
Why Blair has now chosen to intervene is clear: the Labor Party has spent the better part of six months in the midst of an identity crisis. After a dismal set of local election results, Keir Starmer’s position as Prime Minister is still in doubt, Andy Burnham is looking to return to Westminster and Wes Streeting is steadily making his leadership ground. But amid two international wars and a cost-of-living crisis, many members of the public are likely to agree with Blair’s sweeping analysis that now is not the time to turn inward. He writes: “Governments that succeed do not begin with a personality contest.”
But the party that Blair spent 13 years at the helm of is unlikely to welcome this intervention with whoops and cheers of appreciation. Many of the suggestions Blair makes in his essay – such as arguing that Starmer should have abandoned his promises of workers’ rights and net zero early in his prime ministership – are likely to go down like a mug of cold with disaffected party supporters. Blair’s critics are also likely to point to his Institute’s financial ties to tech chief Larry Ellison as driving his AI evangelism and will not look kindly on his suggestion that the UK should repair its relationship with Donald Trump.
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Dan Tomlinson, the Treasury Secretary, who had the unenviable task of taking over the broadcast this morning, handled a difficult situation deftly. He told broadcasters that while he agreed with Blair on some of his analysis, his essay seemed to revive an old Labor feud. “I think (Blair’s) essay was about whether we are New Labor or Old Labor – that was a debate going on in the 1990s in the UK, which was around the time I was born (in 1992). Things have come a long way since then,” he said.
Listening to Blair being interviewed by Nick Robinson on today program offered a hint of that argument. In his national-local campaign for Makerfield, Burnham has spoken harshly about the impact of 40 years of neoliberalism on the British economy. Taken at face value, this might suggest that the Blair and Brown governments (in which Burnham participated) were part of the problem. “I don’t think he really means it,” Blair said.
However, Blair’s essay does not seem to address the Labor Party as it exists today. While he warns against the invasion of the “traditional Labor soft left”, the most likely outcome of the party’s leadership difficulties is that it continues to do just that. Blair’s closest heir in the race is Streeting, whom he describes as a “major political talent”. But according to the polls, Streeting will have a tougher time than rivals such as Burnham, Miliband or Angela Rayner to replace Starmer at No 10.
As this intervention reveals, Blair clearly has a vision for the Labor Party and a vision for Britain. Are his political successors willing to listen?
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; get it every morning by subscribing to Substack here
(Further reading: What Britain will not face)
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