There are many who think that Trump has his face in Iran, practically embracing the radical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (now the IRGC is associated with CENTCOM in Doha, Qatar) is a sellout of US and allied forces, not to mention the now frequent denunciations of Benjamin Netanyahu by the president and by Vice President JD Vance, who also sponsors the IRGC-CENTCOM link.
Embracing dictators and rejecting those who fight for democracy is bad politics and is destabilizing in the long run.
Many experts, including some bona fide regional experts, have tried to understand why Trump abandoned efforts in Iran, embraced the most hated regime in the region and beyond, and is offering billions of dollars in compensation to Iran, ostensibly in exchange for access to Iran’s enriched uranium (something Iran repeatedly tells him will never happen). Some believe that reports apparently from the CIA and DIA told Trump that America’s massive bombing campaign did not actually liquidate Iran’s missiles and dronesand that further bombing would not significantly change the situation. So even though Trump said in public that we had cracked down on the Iranians, his own intelligence agencies told him otherwise.
Is this what made Trump change course?
Trump switched from a bombing campaign to a blockade to facilitate negotiations. This was on and off again for a while until Trump caved in to every Iranian demand. It is assumed that this would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and take the oil flowing from the region. So far, despite Trump signing a strongly pro-Iran deal, that hasn’t happened.
Trump erred badly when he let the Iranians tie any deal to Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, a conflict launched at Tehran’s behest that has caused significant damage to northern Israel. Trump blamed “Bibi” Netanyahu for everything.
Some feel that the blockade was causing great economic damage, especially in Europe (and Europeans have largely refused to support the US and Israel in the Iran conflict). These are the same Europeans who expect the US to protect them in the event of a conflict with Russia, but who spend little on their own defense.
Europe has a combined GDP of nearly $28 trillion, compared to the US’s GDP of $31.9 trillion, so the Europeans have a lot of money (but absurdly small armies). Consider that the US can deploy 200,000 troops simultaneously, while Europe can probably deploy 50,000, maybe less (since they have to get them where they’re going and Europe has limited lifting capacity). On the other hand, Russia has deployed about 750,000 in Ukraine.
Europe has voluntarily cut off Russian gas and oil. The Germans also gave up their nuclear power plants. And someone blew up three quarters of the Nordstream pipeline. There would be no energy crisis if they hadn’t all done this.
Trump’s pattern of behavior regarding Iran is no different from what he has done in Venezuela, would like to do in Cuba, tried to do in Gaza and is trying to do in Ukraine.
In Gaza, Hamas is still in control and has not disarmed. The whole deal is largely a sham and the Gaza problem is not solved as long as Hamas is in control.
In Venezuela there was a real opposition capable of returning the country to democracy and ridding Venezuela of the corrupt thugs who ran the country. The thugs are still in power and there are still political prisoners in that country. Venezuela is not free, it is just selling its oil with the help of US oil companies. The Maduro group is still running the country (and even paying Maduro’s legal bills in New York). They win. Freedom and democracy take him on the chin. The opposition is back in its hole.
What about Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Crown Prince of Iran? Trump didn’t support it, never gave it a chance. What about the 40,000 killed by the regime because they wanted to get rid of the mullahs and the IRGC? Too bad. While the US said it was coming to their aid, it never happened.
The handwriting was on the wall with Venezuela, so no surprises here.
The US spent a lot of effort, along with key allies, especially the British, to get rid of Putin and dismantle Russia, opening it up to divide and rule and capital investment. It didn’t work, at least not yet. So now we and our European allies are arranging to bomb Russia, perhaps to force the Russians into an agreement. Meanwhile, we have side talks with Russia on economic incentives.
Trump’s deal with Iran, as absurd as it is, is popular among voters and Trump’s presidential stake has risen in public opinion. His deal with Venezuela is not seen as negative. The Gaza deal is a failure. The war in Ukraine continues. Americans care about gas prices and the cost of food, not other countries.
In the long term, President Trump has reinforced geopolitical instability and taught a harsh lesson to those who believed he was a modern-day savior and warrior against totalitarianism. The image of the US has been deeply damaged, perhaps irreversibly.
Stephen Bryen is a former US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense. This article was first published in his newsletter Weapons and Strategyreprinted with permission.
