The opposition fears that Erdogan may cause early elections

Turkey’s main opposition – the Republican People’s Party (CHP) – fears that the country’s authoritarian leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is planning early elections to bypass constitutional limits on his power and secure another term as president.

CHP sources said Euractiv that judicial intervention in the opposition leadership race is part of Erdogan’s strategy to trigger elections that would bypass constitutional limits blocking him from a third presidential term.

“It is a big signal that Erdogan is going for early elections”, said senior figures of the CHP. “He is crippling the main opposition.”

The Turkish political landscape has been in turmoil since a court ruling on May 21 reinstated a former presidential candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as head of the CHP.

The CHP, affiliated with the Party of European Socialists, supports a secular state against Erdogan’s religious conservatism. The party claims that the court’s decision was politically motivated under pressure from the Turkish president and his AKP party to disable the opposition.

At a CHP congress in November 2023, rival Özgur Özel had defeated Kılıçdaroğlu for the leadership after the latter lost to Erdogan in the May 2023 presidential election.

Overturning the decision, an Ankara court canceled the party’s congress and reinstated Kiliçdaroğlu as head of the CHP. In March 2025, CHP presidential candidate and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested, causing mass protests. Prosecutors are seeking a cumulative sentence of 2,430 years in prison on charges including “creating a criminal organization.”

Kılıçdaroğlu said this week the party will hold a congress to meet the legal conditions that trigger the split. After Özel and other CHP members refused to hand over the party headquarters in Ankara to Kılıçdaroğlu, the police stormy the building.

“The political opposition must be free to act, organize and participate in the political process without fear of repression,” said the EU. said in a statement.

Constitutional void

The opposition considers the aggressive measures against the largest opposition party as a sign of Erdoğan’s nervousness.

According to the regular electoral calendar, parliamentary and presidential elections must be held no later than May 2028. According to Turkey’s constitution, Erdogan cannot run for a third term unless he changes the constitution – or calls for early elections. But for this the Turkish parliament must approve it and he needs the support of 360 deputies in the 600-seat assembly.

Practically, this means that he will also need the votes of the opposition. There is much speculation in Ankara that Erdogan’s AKP is likely to find these votes.

Political pollsters currently SEE CHP slightly ahead of the ruling AKP. The opposition believes that the lead can be extended. One reason is gloomy Economic Outlook As economists noted, the Turkish central governments budget posted a deficit of TRY 338.7 billion (roughly EUR 6.3 billion) in April 2026, “almost doubling from TRY 174.7 billion a year earlier as spending growth outstripped revenue.”

The restrictions limit Erdogan’s scope for “populist spending” ahead of the election, CHP sources say.

CHP figures are concerned that the EU will eventually go along with Erdogan’s plan.

However, the EU is divided over Turkey’s future place in Europe.

While Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, in April grouped Turkey together with Russia and China as sources of negative influence, countries such as Spain and Belgium increasingly see Ankara as central to Europe’s defense architecture. Erdogan is expected to host the NATO summit in July.

“They will come to the summit in Ankara in July, shake hands and not say a word about it,” a CHP source said.

(bw, sm, cs)