The Green Party is preparing to take advantage of the chaos currently engulfing Labour. Speculation over Keir Starmer’s position is mounting, with former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner calling for Andy Burnham’s return to parliament in an intervention on Sunday night. In a speech on Monday morning, Starmer doubled down, telling the assembled reporters that he will fight anyone who decides to challenge him. He equivocated on the idea of Burnham’s return, saying that would be a decision for Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC).
After a successful set of local election results, the Greens are watching Labour’s situation carefully. In the Manchester City Council elections, the party took a significant share of the Labor majority. Although only a third of the seats were up for grabs, the Greens won 18 of the 32 available, becoming the second largest party on the council. After the Gorton and Denton by-elections earlier this year, which Hannah Spencer won with a majority of more than 4,000 MPs, they hope that if one of the area’s 24 MPs resigns as part of a deal with Burnham, the Greens can claim another victory. (At the time of writing, no MPs have resigned and no by-elections have been called.)
A Green Party insider told me that if a by-election is called in a seat near Manchester and Burnham is allowed to stand, the party will “throw the kitchen sink” to win it. The source said the Greens would plan to “hit (Burnham) very hard on his left”. During the Manchester local elections, the Greens ran a campaign which focused on painting Burnham as part of the “Labour establishment”. The party would do this again in the event of a by-election. When asked if that strategy would include party leader Zack Polanski putting his name forward, a source close to him said: “He has always said he would stand for a seat in London as it has been his home for 20 years.”
This is fighting talk from the Greens, but in the hypothetical event of another Manchester by-election, would it actually work? A soft-left Labor source quipped: “It may be true that there are no safe Labor seats, but there are safe seats in Burnham. His popularity and personal brand are strong enough to get him back into parliament – anyone who denies that is denying reality.”
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Evidence on the ground seems to support this. Burnham remains the only politician across the political spectrum to consistently maintain a positive net favorability rating, according to the poll by Ipsos. (Polanski dropped 14 points last week to -27). As mayor of Greater Manchester, he has a strong brand in the North West and when asked by Ipsos which politicians have what it takes to be a good prime minister, 27 per cent said Burnham (by comparison, 11 per cent said the same for Angela Rayner and 9 per cent for Wes Streeting).
But will this be enough to defeat the Green surge? There are a lot of moving parts. For starters, no by-elections are expected to be held in the North-West. It is clear, however, that if and when Burnham tries to return to Westminster, it will not be just his critics in the Labor Party trying to stand in his way.
(Further reading: Labor faces “civil war” to replace Starmer)
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