What is the Green Party doing? As the Labor Party awaits the coronation of Andy Burnham, their opponents are preparing plans for how to approach this new administration. Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election appeared to swallow the Greens’ vote, leaving them with just 0.7 per cent and costing them their deposit. But for Zack Polanski’s Green Party, the arrival of a more left-wing Burnham-led government in Number 10 could be as much an opportunity as a challenge.
Within the party there are different opinions on how they should move. Green MPs, who come from a different party tradition to their leader, think their party should wait and see, allowing the Makerfield MP to get his feet under the table before jumping to conclusions. “Let him make his own mistakes,” a source said.
But there is another school of thought. Polanski’s allies and some senior officials within the party want to take a louder approach from the start. “Burnham is basically Labour’s last card,” said a source close to Polanski. “They’re betting on him to succeed, but we know he’s going to let the voters down sooner or later.”
Polanski plans to challenge Burnham’s appointments, such as that of James Purnell as his chief of staff or the rumored appointment of Josh Simons to a senior No 10 role. He will point out that while the prime minister may have changed, the Parliamentary Labor Party remains the same. “Starmer had a big block of ex-lobbyists as MPs and now so does Burnham,” said a source close to Polanski. “Putting a new face in Labor will not change its makeup.”
But the polls already suggest a decline for the Greens; from almost 20 percent in March to 13 percent at the end of June. Could former Labor voters, who may have voted Green in protest at Starmer’s leadership, return to Burnham? A senior Green dismissed this. “We know that once people vote Green, they tend to stick with us,” they said, “people don’t see it as ‘lending’ us their vote.”
The party performed well in May’s local elections – picking up tips from Labor in London and confirming their position in the North West, holding on in wards covering Hannah Spencer’s Gorton and Denton constituency. In response, the party is throwing all its resources into a by-election for the mayor of Greater Manchester. Polls suggest it will be a very difficult race for the party to win; they will have to infiltrate areas like Makerfield. But an insider tells me it’s places like Makerfield – the “left seats” – that the party has decided to target.
Polanski – who grew up in north Manchester – has already been in the city to campaign with the party’s candidate Geraldine Coggins and plans to go again during the race. Coggins has been a councilor on Trafford Council in Greater Manchester for the past eight years. Next week the party plans to launch its manifesto for the race and on Friday (3 July) will unveil a new campaign on affordable housing in the city region. The party plans to launch clearer criticism of Labour’s record in Manchester in the coming weeks.
Insiders of other parties are not convinced. A Green source told me they don’t expect to win in Greater Manchester and think the party’s efforts are a waste of time. “We will not win,” they said. Online, there was a backlash against Coggins’ latest campaign video, in which she positioned the Greens campaign as a direct fight against Reform. “It’s dishonest,” said an insider. The Greater Manchester by-election, unlike Gorton and Denton, will be fought under a proportional system rather than a first-past-the-post system. Under this system, some Green Party insiders think it makes no sense to run an antagonistic campaign. The party needs to emphasize its progressive policies in order to encourage more voters in the city region to give Coggins their first preference vote.
This is uncharted territory for the Green Party. The height of Gorton and Denton has been difficult to replicate. The result at Makerfield, coupled with the return of Burnham, has dampened the buzz around Polanski. As one insider notes, how the party responds over the coming months will depend on “which Andy Burnham turns up”.
(Further reading: Andy Burnham of decentralization)
