It has been a year since conflict erupted between India and Pakistan, briefly raising fears of an all-out war between the two nuclear powers.
While violent conflict between neighbors has been common for the past 80 years, this latest round of fighting felt different.
both sides used new weapons against each other, including cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and drones. The level of mistrust and sharp rhetoric worsened significantly, severely testing regional partnerships.
A year later, tensions remain high, with a fundamental risk of further escalation.
What happened last year?
The war broke out last May after a terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians in the Pahalgam area of Indian Kashmir on April 22.
Within days, Indian the police claimed that the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba was behind the attack. Pakistan vehemently denied any involvement.
Then, on May 7, India departed Operation Sindoor against suspected terrorist strongholds in Pakistan, which triggered a Pakistani retaliatory strike, Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos.
Dozens of people they are believed to have been killed. As in any India-Pakistan conflict, the possibility of using nuclear weapons created further alarm.
The four-day conflict ended with a ceasefire on 10 May. it Was DESIGNATED by the Trump administration, which claimed to have brokered the deal. it irritated India but Pakistan nominated US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
India however claimed victoryboasting its ability to launch precision strikes inside Pakistani territory, exposing weaknesses in its rival’s air defenses. Pakistan meanwhile, ALLEGED to have shot down five Indian fighter jets (which India denies it).
Political branches
In Pakistan, the Pakistani military returned to the political mainstream after the conflict. After leading Pakistan’s military response to India, Chief of Army Staff Syed Asim Munir rose to the rank of field marshal and then the country’s first the boss of protection FORCES.
of Munir INFLUENCE it has only grown since then. He has been very close to Trump and has been one the main figure in the negotiations between the US and Iran to end their war.
In India, Operation Sindoor was seen as a victory for the Modi government’s decisive foreign policy and was a rare political moment. consensus in place.
However, in Kashmir, the terror attack raised fresh questions about the government’s claims normalcy in the region – and his push to boost tourism – after controversial revocations of Kashmiri citizenship in 2019.
In the weeks following the attack, security operations in the Kashmir valley shut down several tourist sites. This led to a sharp decrease in the number of visitors and severely affected local businesses. Security operations also targeted civilians, ALARMING human rights experts.
Perhaps the most significant impact of the conflict has been the change in the diplomatic engagements of both countries.
Shifting regional dynamics
The war highlighted Pakistan’s operational cooperation with China and Turkey. of The Pakistani military used Chinese-made fighter jets and missiles in her attacks, as well Turkish production drones. Hers satellite-based intelligence it was also made possible by China.
After the war, Pakistan also signed one new deal with the Trump administration to develop Pakistan’s oil reserves, and a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, a strong US ally.
India had pursued a decade-long push to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, which made Pakistan increasingly friendly with the US and the Gulf states in particular. awkward.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi once close relationship with Trumpmeanwhile, it began to deteriorate due to US tariffs and the Indian acquisition Russian oil.
Modi is in bad timing visit towards Israel and the apparent lack of influence in the US-Iran war has also raised questions about India’s self-proclaimed role as a regional leader. It has highlighted the limits of India’s strategy to balance its strategic partnerships, especially during conflict.
India has tried to engage in proactive diplomacy, SEND delegations of MPs and former diplomats to more than 30 countries during the past year. While India claims these visits were a success, they they haven’t done much to convince the world that Pakistan was the aggressor in their conflict.
Where do things go from here?
A year later, the political rhetoric on both sides is as charged as ever.
both INDIA and Pakistan have Signaling or RESOLVES for further escalation in future conflicts.
Despite a shred of hope for the secret back channel talksIndia keeps on giving stern warnings to Pakistan for alleged support for terrorist groups.
India has also reiterated that a large water sharing treaty between countries would remain suspended until Pakistan takes steps to end its support for terrorism – leaving a major water security concern unresolved.
In response, Pakistan has made it clear any attempt to target Pakistan again would “cause consequences” that would not be “geographically or strategically limited or politically palatable to India”.
Shifting geopolitics and heightened rhetoric have narrowed the scope for any prospect of meaningful dialogue between the two. As a result, alarmingly low levels of confidence will remain.
The truce holds for now, but the conflict continues unabated.
Bhatnagar stuti is a lecturer, Indo-Pacific Studies, UNSW Sydney.
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