Hamas DESIGNATED this month it will dissolve its government in Gaza to transfer control to a US-backed Palestinian committee. This was one of the mandates brokered by the US peace agreement between Israel and Hamas last year.
While this means that Hamas will not act in a governing role in the generation, it does not necessarily mean that its military wing will disband or DISARMED.
The move may be purely symbolic, a way for Hamas to rebrand itself. Critics say a real transfer of power in Gaza would ask dismantling the Hamas security apparatus.
Regardless of how it plays out, Hamas appears to be taking a step back in Gaza. Will Hezbollah now follow its example in Lebanon?
Hezbollah under pressure
Since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza, Hezbollah and Hamas have projected a united front as part of Iran. axis of resistance.
Like Hamas, Hezbollah has suffered significant leadership and military losses during the war. However, it has still been able to maintain its organizational cohesion and military capability.
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a weak truce in 2024, but that fell apart earlier this year after the US and Israel launched their own war against Iran.
Last month, Israel and Lebanon signed another ceasefire agreement – without Hezbollah – who called for the militant group’s disarmament. However, the leader of Hezbollah said that his group would continue to fight until Israeli troops withdrew from Lebanon.
With pressure now mounting on Hezbollah, the group will have to recalibrate its role both in Lebanon and in the region.
In particular, it will have to reexamine the tenuous balance it strikes between its military activism, political legitimacy, and strategic position as part of Iran’s proxy network. There are a number of scenarios for how this could happen.
Political transformation
Hezbollah may seek to transform itself into a purely political organization in Lebanon, giving up its military wing altogether. This would give the group new legitimacy in the region and improve its relations with the Persian Gulf states in particular.
However, it would also fundamentally change Hezbollah’s core ideological identity – the group appeared in the 1980s as an armed militia to liberate southern Lebanon from Israeli occupation – and its relationship with Iran.
That seems unlikely in the short term, given Hezbollah continues to receive significant military, diplomatic and political support from Iran. In the eyes of Hezbollah’s supporters, Israel’s continued military operations in Lebanon also demonstrate a continuing need for a military wing.
Becoming just a political party would also end Hezbollah’s ability to sit on the fence in Lebanon. The group has long enjoyed the ability to criticize the Lebanese government as corrupt without being held accountable.
As another party without any political platform or program, it may fail miserably.
Re-naming its military wing
Instead of giving up its armed wing, Hezbollah could rebrand it as a national necessity to deter further Israeli attacks. This could be successful if the group portrays itself as compensating for Lebanon’s weak military, building on its narrative of resistance.
But this would only be achievable if the Lebanese people continue to see Israel as the main threat and Hezbollah as a nationalist organization. And that seems to be changing.
Hezbollah’s popularity has Decreased recently because of the number of wars it has dragged Lebanon into. Many Lebanese also believe that Hezbollah is prioritizing Iran’s regional agenda over Lebanon’s national interests.
If public support for Hezbollah continues to erode, the group may become increasingly marginalized. Fear of criticizing the group in the past, some of Hezbollah main supporters in Lebanon’s Shia community even more can be done disappointed with him.
This could be accelerated if the party loses its ability to provide financial support to its base. For some Lebanese, this is the main reason they support the organization in the first place.
If Hezbollah becomes more marginalized, pressure to disarm would come WITHIN Lebanese society itself – not just the international community.
Maintaining the status quo
Finally, the cease-fire agreements between Israel and Lebanon may falter, leading to renewed fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.
This could result from renewed hostilities between Iran and the US in recent days, Hezbollah’s continued rejection of any agreement between Israel and Lebanon, or its refusal to disarm.
The Lebanese government has been under extreme pressure from the US and Israel to disarm the group by any means necessary. But the specter of another devastating civil war so far has prevented its army from disarming the group by force.
Iran plays a role in this. Although Hezbollah has tried to project an image of acting semi-autonomously from Iran, its future depends heavily on Tehran — and how necessary the Iranian regime believes Hezbollah remains.
For now, Hezbollah remains a vital asset to Iran’s strategic defense. Until that changes, Hezbollah isn’t going anywhere.
Mariam Farida is a lecturer in security studies, Macquarie University
This article was reprinted from Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read on original article.
