Few think Starmer will last the year


I have to admit that I don’t mark the start of local election season with much fanfare at home – who does? And yet, in the moment, I was drawn to a leaflet I got through the door this week, reminding me that the election was actually a real thing and not just another Westminster event. The leaflet was a kind of official campaign brochure, containing the election promises of the candidates in my area. As I laid it out on the kitchen counter, what struck me was how pedestrian the Labor and Conservative pitches looked compared to those offered by the Greens and Reform.

Where the Conservatives promised to overhaul low-traffic neighbourhoods, Reform promised to end the “war on drivers”. Where Labor promised gradualism, the Greens declared themselves “tired of the structure protecting billionaires while our rivers fill with sewage”. Does any of this matter? My part of London is effectively a one-party state, as most council seats are held by Labour. But how long will this last? It has always struck me as ironic that I left the North East of England at a time when Labour’s grip on the region seemed unassailable, only to watch from afar as it slowly drifted to the right, while the area I now live in became a real Labor heartland. Will my children watch London abandon Labor in a similar way, only by moving left to the Greens?

Everywhere I walk locally, I spot posters supporting Zack Polanski’s Greens. I can only think of one house I’ve passed declaring her allegiance to Keir Starmer. This is not normal. But how long can things go on like this? As I write, the Prime Minister has never looked more alone or small on the political scene, reeling from crisis after crisis, losing allies and abandoning friends to maintain his grip on power. It’s hard to find anyone who thinks Starmer will lead Labor into the next general election; few think he will see it this year.

The challenge from the Greens is a key part of this story and should not be dismissed as mere protest politics. One of the most important political stories of my life has been the uphill battle waged against the Conservative Party by its populist right. All this time Nigel Farage (and Faragism) has waxed and waned, only now apparently standing on the brink of power. Even after the Brexit vote in 2016, Farage looked lost, digging into his American money lair for three years before returning for the 2019 European elections. In the period between Boris Johnson’s December 2019 victory and the 2024 general election, there was a similar pattern of interruption and reversal.

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Polanski, who is interviewed by our political editor, Ailbhe Rea, is experiencing the tide of a populist surge. As Ailbhe reports, Polanski experiences (in some parts of the country) levels of rock star worship, much like Jeremy Corbyn did in the run-up to his imminent triumph in 2017. Left-wing populism is neither new nor going away, as much as Faragism is with us. The reasons for his support are structural, not personal.

Corbyn first broke into the mainstream in the 2015 Labor leadership race, before winning almost 13 million votes in the 2017 election. He was an imperfect human vessel for the forces he gathered around him – as the problems surrounding your Party have proven. Many failed to take Corbynism seriously, but the truth is that its power remains.

In 2025, discussing potential Your Party voters, former Corbyn adviser James Schneider summed up this group as “wealth-poor working class, downwardly mobile graduates and racialized communities”. These are the people who are rallying to Polanski’s side and stopping him on the street for selfies. It should not be assumed that his support will disappear just because Corbyn has faded from view.

Much of Polanski’s coverage thus far has treated him as a joke. But in our profile, we questioned his politics and beliefs, to better understand where the country is headed. Tell us how we did.

Meanwhile at home, I hope to put my election leaflets aside and find some form of TV escapism with my kids. Race around the world, The gladiators, Match of the day and, alas, Gabby’s Dollhouse wait

(Further reading: Keir Starmer is all alone)

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This article appears in the April 22, 2026 issue of the New Statesman, All alone



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