Andy Burnham has a ten-point lead over Reform, according to the latest Makerfield constituency poll by Survation. Expanding from three fine points a few weeks back in this most commanding direction can be workers’ homes. But the survey also exposes something less obvious: the gender divide.
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Andy Burnham’s lead among the Makerfield ladies is emphatic, while among the men he is neck and neck with Reform’s Robert Kenyon. But here’s the kicker: Voter uncertainty is lower among women than among men in the poll. This is not normal. Usually women tend to be more uncertain about their preferences in opinion polls. In voting intention surveys around the world, women are more likely to answer “don’t know”. So what could be behind it?
For reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s comments on abortion to feature so heavily in a by-election campaign is unusual in mainland Britain. “Abortion is the cowardly act of killing a defenseless baby,” reads one X post. And “don’t bring up the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ argument,” reads another, in response to someone else. These are not sentiments often elicited by a candidate at election time. It’s a fringe view, even among voters on the right. Similarly, Kenyon’s comments about Carol Vorderman have been widely publicized, with Kenyon refusing to apologize for them in an appearance on Question time on Thursday (June 5).
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However, Makerfield will be an uphill battle for Labour. Britain Predicts demographic analysis shows how favorable the area is for the Reform brand. Even in scenarios where, nationally, Labor wins a majority, Makerfield still votes Reform.
But Survation recording an even greater percentage of work than landslides in 2024 throws a wrench in that analysis. Could misogyny sink reform? We will see very soon.
(Further reading: Knocking on Andy Burnham’s door in Downing Street)
