As El Niño conditions strengthen in the Pacific, India’s monsoon is showing signs of strain in a dozen states. As of mid-June, rainfall is about 35 percent below normal nationwide, and central India faces a 63 percent shortfall. Monsoon progress has stalled in much of Maharashtra, while Mumbai is closely monitoring its reservoir levels as supplies are expected to last only about 45 days if conditions continue. In the south, Tamil Nadu farmers are unsure about planting Kuruvai rice because dam storage is low, while reduced Cauvery flows on the Karnataka border are worrying others. The weather office has stated that early June deficits do not set the whole season, but there is now a nearly 60 percent chance of a poor monsoon, which is a serious concern for the entire nation.
The next 6-8 weeks will be crucial. The Center is working with states to launch crop-specific backup plans, but execution should be on a war footing. Short-duration, drought-resistant seeds need to reach vulnerable areas quickly, along with clear advice to farmers on what to plant, when. At the same time, MGNREGA funds should go towards cleaning tanks, repairing canals and improving groundwater recharge before the monsoon reaches its peak. More than just issuing warnings, city administrations should focus on finding leaks, managing demand and planning for emergency water supplies.
