Sustainable aviation fuel costs two to 10 times more than conventional jet fuel. Yesterday at the Farnborough International Air Show, Airbus put a number on what it would take for Canada to build an industry anyway.
Consulting firm commissioned by Airbus ICF to model what it would take to build a domestic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry in Canada. The answer is about $1.15 per liter in additional policy support, on top of what already exists.
This could increase domestic production to 40% of the nation’s jet fuel supply by 2040. The ICF predicts $32 billion in cumulative GDP, 140,000 job years (about 9,300 net jobs per year) and $13.9 billion in tax revenue between 2026 and 2040.
Saskatchewan, Alberta and Quebec see the largest projected gains, thanks to a mix of canola production, refining capacity and forest resources that vary by province.
Canada already imports approximately 35% of its conventional aviation fuel. Without more domestic production, the ICF study projects, Canada could rely on imports for more than 65% of the biofuel needed to meet projected demand by 2030.
For a country that spent the last two years learning hard lessons about supply chain vulnerabilitythis is quite a significant number.
“Ensuring energy sovereignty requires decisive action,” says Guillaume Chevasson, CEO of Airbus Canada. “Fostering a domestic SAF industry is not only an environmental imperative, it can become a powerful economic engine for Canada’s future.”
or PwC special report that the company commissioned last week revealed it spent $2.2 billion with 970 Canadian suppliers in 2025, employs 5,300 people in Canada and generated $8.4 billion in GDP over 2023-2025.
Its employees earn 60% above the average Canadian wage. Canada is Airbus’ largest industrial footprint outside of Europe, according to the report, and the company is making its industrial policy case with the supply chain to support it.
Both studies were commissioned by Airbus and are not independent research.
BC is the only jurisdiction in North America with a SAF blending mandate. Under the province Low Carbon Fuels Lawfuel suppliers must blend 1% SAF by 2028, rising to 3% by 2030. ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation it started with 2% in 2025 and goes to 70% by 2050.
Canada has no federal mandate.
The same week in Farnborough, Air Canada and Airbus announced plans for a co-investment platform of up to $13.7 million aims to push a Canadian SAF project towards a final investment decision.
The platform may move a project closer to construction, but does not close the industry-wide cost gap identified by ICF.
Airbus also signed a five-year agreement to purchase SAF environmental attributes through Air Canada’s Leave Less Travel Program, tying the deal to its corporate travel emissions.
“Countries that move early to establish SAF industries will be best positioned to seize the economic, strategic and environmental opportunities that follow,” says Dan Galpin, head of global aviation at ICF.
For companies buying SAF credits or setting business travel targets, the unanswered question is whether voluntary contracts can support Canadian manufacturing before government policy closes the cost gap.
The last shots
- The $1.15 per liter figure gives governments and industry a number to discuss. The next question is who pays for it? Manufacturers, airlines, taxpayers or passengers.
- Airbus and Air Canada can help a project reach an investment decision. Building an industry requires politics that survive beyond a project and a federal budget.
- Companies buying SAF credits should ask whether their money is supporting new Canadian production or buying credits tied to fuel produced elsewhere.
