German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives look set to oust the center-left Social Democratic Party on Sunday in a closely watched state election in which the far right also made big gains, according to exit polls.
Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) took about 30 percent of the vote and looks poised to win the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate after 35 years under the SPD, which took 27 percent, according to polls by two public television networks.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, meanwhile, looked set for a record result in western Germany, with around 20 percent, according to polls by ARD and ZDF television.
The extreme right doubles its vote share
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel hailed the result – more than double the insurgent anti-immigration party’s result in the last state election – as a “huge success”, in a message to X.
The AfD looks set to pose a bigger threat to the two centrist parties in several state elections in September in the country’s formerly communist east.
CDU candidate Gordon Schneider meanwhile claimed victory and vowed to bring change to the state’s education, security, health and economic policy.
The CDU had enjoyed a narrow lead in the polls over the SPD, their coalition partners at the national level.
The state of Rhineland-Palatinate, bordering France, Belgium and Luxembourg and with a population of around four million, is known for its steep river valleys, many lined with vineyards and topped with castles.
It is also home to heavy industry, including steelmakers and chemicals giant BASF, and hosts several US military facilities, including the sprawling Ramstein Air Base.
Outgoing SPD Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer, 52, had campaigned hoping to hold together his coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats.
But Schnieder, 50, now looks set to return his party to power there for the first time since 1991.
If the final numbers confirm a CDU victory, it would be a shot in the arm for Merz, who has faced poor popularity ratings and struggled to fulfill his campaign promise to reignite Europe’s biggest economy after years of stagnation.
Merz had campaigned with Schneider – the brother of his transport minister, Patrick Schnieder – but stressed that state elections should not distract the CDU and SPD from their government cooperation at the national level.
Socialists fight
Losing the onetime SPD stronghold would be a setback for Germany’s traditional labor party, whose fortunes have faded in recent years amid a string of bitter electoral defeats.
Nationally, the SPD hit a historic low last year when former chancellor Olaf Scholz led them to their worst result in more than a century – 16.4 percent – in the February 2025 election.
Nationally, the AfD is now polling neck-and-neck with the CDU, with both at around 25 percent.
Josephine, a 20-year-old student, said she voted to prevent “a slide to the right”.
“We have to make sure we don’t go in a direction that history has already shown us and we have to preserve what we have built in recent years,” she said as she voted in Mainz, the regional capital.
In September, voters in East Germany will take part in several state elections, with the AfD expected to perform particularly well and potentially claim an outright majority.
Any alliance with the AfD remains taboo in the country, with all other parties refusing to cooperate with the far-right.
The CDU suffered a bitter defeat earlier this month in the largest state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, where missteps saw it lose a huge lead in the polls to allow the Greens to claim victory.
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Updated to correct acronym in title.
