BOGOTÁ, Colombia (CN) – On Sunday, Colombians will choose their next president in what could become a pivotal election, with most polls favoring far-right political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella over the ruling Pacto Historico candidate, leftist Senator Iván Cepeda.
The vote comes after four years of the presidency of Gustavo Petros, the first left-wing administration in Colombia’s modern history, and amid widespread public frustration over security, economic performance and the government’s failure to deliver on some of its most ambitious promises.
The race has increasingly been framed by voters as a choice between continuity and a sharp political rupture. While Cepeda has campaigned for the preservation and extension of Petro-era reforms, de la Espriella has presented himself as an anti-establishment figure who would differ greatly from the current government’s policies.
A lawyer and television commentator who has never held elected office, de la Espriella has built his campaign around promises to restore security, end political gridlock and tackle armed groups with a much tougher approach than the current administration. His rise has reflected a broader trend across Latin America, where foreign candidates promising quick solutions to entrenched problems have found growing support.
Like many recent elections in Latin America, this election has been tainted by both euphoria and fear brought about by expectations surrounding a tough candidate who promises radical and ruthless change to the country’s historic issues.
The race has also reflected a broader regional trend in which candidates promising tough security policies and a confrontation with traditional political elites have gained traction, echoing debates that have shaped recent elections elsewhere in Latin America.
On Thursday afternoon, just days before polling stations opened across the country, two very different scenes unfolded just a few kilometers apart.
In a central area of northern Bogotá, an upper-middle-class district, excited voters dressed in the country’s national team jersey and carrying Colombian flags marched through their neighborhood, between large shopping malls and luxury retail stores, singing songs expressing their support for “El Tigre” — the Tiger, as de la Espriella calls himself. as they passed.
Liliana Vendir, a 66-year-old woman who said she lives by renting her properties, jumped up and down as the rally progressed. “Abelardo will bring much-needed unity,” she said. “It will boost the private sector and, therefore, dismantle armed groups.”
One of the main talking points during the presidential campaign has been security, a topic the right-wing candidate has capitalized on due to the government’s treatment of Petro, the political leader of the Cepeda movement, who promised to bring “total peace” but which experts argue has largely failed in this pursuit.
Violence has worsened in some regions during Petro’s tenure, with armed groups expanding their territorial presence in some areas despite ongoing negotiations with the government, making public safety one of the most cited concerns among voters.
De la Espriella vows to crack down on long-standing armed groups across the country, many of which are deeply rooted in communities across Colombia, a sign of an ongoing conflict half a century later. He rejected the policies of negotiation that have dominated the political approach to the conflict, and instead proposed harsh policies, mega-prisons and direct clashes to curb their spread.
Some of his voters hope that foreign investment and an expanded private sector will attract those who are financially vulnerable and find themselves drawn to the lucrative businesses of criminal organizations.
However, watchdogs have reported that recruitment in recent decades has become more complex, subtle and coercive, which can make identifying crime leaders more difficult and civilians more prone to violent targeting – something that happened in the past during the Álvaro Uribe government of the early 2000s and led to thousands of human rights killings across the College.
A few miles away, in La Trocha, a cultural center founded by former guerrillas who joined the peace accords – “the house of peace,” as they call it – young people gathered to discuss their vote days before the election.
The center’s existence is itself a product of the 2016 peace deal between the Colombian government and FARC guerrillas, a landmark agreement that remains politically divisive nearly a decade later and continues to shape debates over security, reconciliation and state policy.
At a table, three friends shared a beer as they discussed their anxieties about the election.
“I came here to learn about his proposals,” said Lina María Insaguasti, a 25-year-old lawyer. “Because de la Espriella really scares me.”
Although the group of friends did not fully support Gustavo Petro, the current president, the political leader of the Cepeda movement, they felt that many of the administration’s mistakes could be fixed – and what has been done for good, improved.
“I don’t want my country to become Mile’s Argentina or Bukele’s El Salvador,” said Melissa Gutiérrez, 41, originally from Medellín. Over the past few weeks, she said, she had spent a lot of time talking to her family at home after realizing that a strong fake news campaign had reached them, convincing them, among other things, that Cepeda was involved in a guerrilla group.
Cepeda, 63, spent most of his career advocating for victims of the conflict and participating in dialogue and peace negotiations after his father, a congressman and leftist politician, was killed during a brutal moment of the national conflict.
His candidacy has become a test of whether Colombia’s left can retain political support after Petro’s presidency, which energized progressive voters but also faced declining approval ratings for much of her term.
During his campaign, despite the criticism of Petros’ “total peace” program, he stood by his commitment to continue the path of negotiations. Some of his center-left critics have said that Colombia needs not only peace policies, but also security policies.
“There’s really a lot at stake,” said Sergio Guzmán, an analyst at Colombia Risk Analysis, a consulting group. “Two completely different visions of the country.”
Beyond the presidency, the outcome is expected to affect the future of Colombia’s peace process, relations with the private sector and the country’s approach to organized crime and armed groups for years to come.
Polls will be open from 08:00 to 16:00 Bogota time, with results expected on Sunday evening.
Lucía Cholakian Herrera is a Courthouse News correspondent covering Latin America. She reported from Bogota, Colombia.
Subscribe to our free newsletters
Our weekly newsletter Closing arguments provides the latest on ongoing trials, major litigation and decisions in courts around the US and the world, while monthly Under the lights feeds legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.
