With the US increasingly distracted by the Iran war and China becoming more assertive, Taiwan is reframing its defenses for a more uncertain era.
This month, Reuters reported that Taiwan is executing a major strategic defense shift by dramatically expanding its anti-ship missile arsenal to more than 1,800 weapons by early 2029 to counter the growing threat of a Chinese blockade or invasion.
This massive procurement initiative relies heavily on the purchase of 400 US-made Harpoon advanced cruise missiles, with full delivery scheduled between 2026 and March 2029, along with mass production of approximately 1,000 domestic Hsiung Feng II and III missiles.
By deploying these precision weapons, which glide from the sea via mobile, land-based missiles, Taiwan’s military aims to implement an asymmetric “kill zone” strategy within the hotly contested Taiwan Strait.
Inspired by Ukraine’s successful naval drone strikes against Russia and Iran’s resistance to bombing, the strategy focuses on inflicting devastating initial losses to destroy the landing capabilities of a Chinese invasion fleet rather than trying to destroy the entire People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
To effectively synchronize this increase in coastal firepower and aerial drones, Taiwan will formally inaugurate a Unified Coastal Combatant Command in July, a structural overhaul designed to stall invading forces long enough for allied nations to intervene during a protracted war of attrition.
As Taiwan accelerates its shift toward asymmetric defense, the key question is whether a domestic, missile-centric deterrent can offset growing uncertainty over the reliability and availability of U.S. military support.
Taiwan’s push to buy more anti-ship missiles comes after the US Trump administration’s decision to freeze a $14 billion arms package to Taiwan.
Acting Secretary of the US Navy Hung Cao Mentioned to a US Senate Armed Services Committee in May 2026 HEARING that the pause is meant to ensure the US has enough weapons for its war effort in Iran. However, Cao stressed that foreign military sales will continue when the US Trump administration deems it necessary.
According to Rush Doshi and David Sacks in a May 2026 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) ITEMthe pause could affect sales of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), and TOW and Javelin anti-tank missiles.
Looking at US Interceptor Spending Rates During the Iran War, Will Smith and Michael Cohen note in a May 2026 Stimson ITEM that in the first two days of the war, the US shot down about 1,300 Patriot interceptors, representing up to 60% of its stockpile and over two years of production at 2025 rates.
Smith and Cohen also add that it could take two to three years to replenish stocks of Patriot and other interceptors, creating a window of vulnerability for a potential conflict in the Western Pacific. This weakness may also have factored into the Trump administration’s calculus regarding Taiwan.
“I’m not asking for anybody to become independent. And, you know, we have to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not asking for that. I want them to calm down. I want China to calm down,” US President Donald Trump said on Fox News. interview last month, potentially highlighting this vulnerability.
In addition, Trump said he “may or may not” approve arms sales to Taiwan, adding that Taiwan is “a very good bargaining chip” for the US, emphasizing its transactional foreign policy.
Despite the pause in arms sales to Taiwan, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated to a US Senate Foreign Relations Committee HEARING this month “the most important thing to understand is that we want to see the status quo (Taiwan) maintained as it is at the moment. This is our policy, this is what we have said, this is what we continue to say.” He added, “It’s a very delicate relationship to balance, but our policy on Taiwan is not changing.”
Contrary to the ambiguity of the Trump administration, China has been consistent and persistent in its position on Taiwan, with state spokesman Xinhua reporting in May 2026, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that “Taiwan independence” and cross-strait peace are as “incompatible as fire and water”.
The US Trump administration’s decision to halt arms sales to Taiwan may be sending mixed messages to international audiences. First, US arms sales to Taiwan have been a preferred means for the US to demonstrate commitment to protecting the self-governing island, short of clear recognition of sovereignty or direct military intervention that could threaten the long-standing status quo of the Taiwan Strait.
According to that Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, in a May 2026 Facebook post cited by Politicosaid that “China has never abandoned its goal of annexing Taiwan by force and continues to expand its military capabilities in an effort to change the regional and cross-strait status quo,” stressing that “continued US arms sales to Taiwan and the deepening of Taiwan-US security cooperation are not only necessary but also key elements in maintaining regional peace.”
With the US facing a significant capability gap from the Iran war and suspending its arms sales to Taiwan indefinitely, Taipei may need to invest more in asymmetric warfare capabilities that can be supported domestically and with the help of alternative partners.
Taiwan has supported this approach with sustainable investments in rocket production, long range hitting skills AND defense-industrial partnerships aims to reduce dependence on foreign supply.
These efforts underscore Taiwan’s shift from dependence on US arms purchases to developing an indigenous deterrent capable of withstanding a blockade, protracted conflict and political uncertainty.
Instead of relying solely on US intervention, Taiwan is seeking to create a self-sufficient defense ecosystem that increases the cost of aggression to China through locally produced missiles, munitions and asymmetric capabilities.
However, Taiwan’s push for indigenous capabilities and for alternative defense partners beyond the US faces significant obstacles.
In March 2026 ITEM for the Global Taiwan Institute (GTI), John Dotson notes that halting critical US arms sales ahead of major diplomatic summits creates supply uncertainty and impedes the rapid and orderly acquisition of Taiwan’s core capabilities.
Dotson adds that due to ongoing Chinese diplomatic pressure, the US remains the only major arms-producing country willing to sell defense systems to Taiwan.
He also points out that a divided government has caused the opposition-controlled legislature to repeatedly block the executive branch’s proposed $40 billion special defense budget, blocking critical funding for asymmetric systems.
As US strategic bandwidth narrows and China intensifies pressure, Taiwan’s long-term security may depend less on the amount of weapons supplied from abroad than on its ability to build a resilient, self-sustaining deterrent that can withstand attack and withstand political uncertainty.
