It’s Makerfield or break for Andy Burnham

There is an unassuming street in central London occupied exclusively by political journalists. It’s called the Hyperbole Road. We all live there and wake up every day to find that something extraordinary, amazing, historic or, on a bad day, just plain catastrophic has happened. This week, I was standing in a corner with the guys and the lads, triply crooked, when I had an epiphany. “Guys,” I said, “I think they’re with us. The public has caught on. We might have to go slow on the wild exaggeration . . .”

But everyone else said that was nonsense; I was just exaggerating as usual. So I nervously offer the following. The Makerfield by-election is not only the most important election in British history; it is also a once-in-a-lifetime all-out war between social democracy and right-wing populism. If Andy Burnham can defeat Reform in a seat where the local election result is against him – a Brexit bastion and a redoubt of the white working class – then Nigel Farage no longer looks like the next prime minister.

Work would regain self-confidence. Arguments that had been settled will suddenly be reopened. Reform, meanwhile, will fight this on a “beat Burnham and destroy Labor forever” ticket. If they win, they will leave a reduced Starmer prime minister swinging in the wind, with a toxic left-right feud poised to swallow what remains of Labour’s credibility.

But this is a double moment. Burnham has gambled away his career, his status – everything. Rather than sneer at his careerism or self-delusion, we should credit him with at least trying to change the weather. This is often how political change begins: with individual risk. But it is rare and we should welcome it.

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Bigger than ever

So it’s big. Bigger than the Oxford by-election of 1938, which warned Neville Chamberlain of growing hostility to his policy of appeasement towards Adolf Hitler? yes. Makerfield will determine who becomes prime minister and whether the old system of party politics has any life left in it. Kinross and Western Perthshire in 1963 allowed Alec Douglas-Home, a former peer, into the Commons following the Profumo Affair and emergency prostate surgery and Harold Macmillan’s resignation. For 20 days, Douglas-Home was prime minister without being an MP or a member of the House of Lords. But that by-election was not a close fight, and it did not involve a sitting prime minister being forced to campaign for a candidate who wanted to destroy him.

I can’t find a parallel for Makerfield in terms of drama or significance. I checked out Iain Dale’s excellent anthology British Internal Electionswhich covers 88 by-elections between 1769 and 2025. From this, I take some satisfaction in the fact that it is the voters – not social media, AI, commentators or ministers – who have the final say.

Many are ex-mining people: Joe Gormley, who led the NUM in the 1970s, came from Ashton-in-Makerfield. Before that, it was the scene of religious confrontation. Ashton miners drove out a senior Anglican vicar in Victorian times and were dispersed by troops. What will Tommy Robinson do with his army of Christian nationalists?

Oh good. Now it’s up to Ashton and Ince. Dale quotes Abraham Lincoln: “The election belongs to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their backs on the fire and burn their behinds, then they’ll have to sit in the cocoons.” This is how the carnival begins.

The puzzle of being alive

An attractive young woman eaten alive; horrible death; a chopped cow; adultery – it was all very good fun. In the forestStephen Sondheim’s score playing at London’s Bridge Theater is absolutely haunting: spectacular and beautifully sung. Based on Grimm’s fairy tales, it’s a reminder that folktales, like all valuable art, are really about the puzzle of being alive—the importance of courage and love, and the inevitability of bad things happening. Somehow, you leave feeling better about the world.

If, however, you’re looking for something more political, everyone is raving about it The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui revival by the Royal Shakespeare Company in Stratford. Starring Mark Gatiss, one of the country’s finest actors, it breaks the fourth wall to challenge audiences to engage with politics. I don’t think the RSC will be allowed to visit him at Makerfield…

Mining for an answer

A final reflection on an old mining area: how did the centenary of the General Strike earlier this month pass with so little comment? A defeat for the miners and the wider trade union movement was also the high-water mark of the possibility of revolution in this country – at least then. I’ve seen very few debates though. We are losing a lot in this country: are we also losing our collective political memory?

(Further reading: Long coup)