Within an hour of an assassination attempt on him a few weeks ago, Donald Trump said it would not have happened inside his new White House ballroom. A Fox News reporter who looked like she was about to uncover a conspiracy lost her live television connection. Before the event, at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt had said that “there will be some shots tonight in the room.” (She was talking about comical shots, not ballistics.) Rumors that Trump had orchestrated the attack began to spread online. Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett posted that “maybe it’s fake… who knows…”.
Was the shooting part of a false flag operation in his fight against the planning authorities? Or is he just a crafty opportunist who turned a security breach into good PR for his unpopular East Wing renovation? It is too late for such questions. In online folklore, the shooting has been labeled a possible hoax attack.
Conspiracies are their currency in Trumpland. What is curious is that both parties are partial to the glowing theories about dark forces of evil. The plots you will find in Maga are much more extravagant. Watch Tucker Carlson and others “raise questions” about why we don’t know more about Trump’s various wanted assassins. Anti-Semitism is also a fertile source of conspiracy theories on the right.
But on the left, the various assassination attempts on Trump have given rise to rumors of “false flags” and botched investigations. When Butler’s assassination attempt is brought up in a liberal conversation in Washington, more often than not they will suggest that it was either staged or not as it appears. A mainstream journalist once told me that they thought Q-Anon was created by the intelligence services to discredit Trump. Make a quizzical look and you’ll be dismissed as a naïve European.
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This is surprising because conspiracy theories are usually seen as the preserve of those far from the political order. A low status preoccupation; the kind of things the “wretched” believe. At a Trump campaign rally in 2024, I spent an hour talking to a woman about the Illuminati, the elites who started both world wars to slaughter ordinary people, and the impending Second Coming. She spoke as if she had this world-changing knowledge that could save me. If I didn’t see the light, then my life would be in danger. There was fear in her eyes.
In my experience, the more time you spend with powerful people, the less conspiratorial you become. Their very human frailties clearly preclude the extensive coordination most conspiracies require. But these conspiracies are now entering “respectable” political debate. They have become a version of fables for a fragmented and constantly online society. Elites buy into the strange baseless theory out of curiosity, a genuine doubt, or a sense of helplessness in the face of their own shattered expectations. Conspiracies often serve as allegories for real injustices. What is interesting is that the social taboo around taking them out has weakened. Like any social convention, it only has any effect if everyone abides by it.
It is common for people to think that their enemies are more powerful than they really are. We like to find hidden motives where there is none. Is Palantir Trying to Use Artificial Intelligence to Allow Governments to Surveil Citizens? Well, you don’t need a big diagram with Peter Thiel in the center of a hundred red arrows to know the answer because Palantir has repeatedly posted on social media that this is what they do. The plot, more often than not, is front and center – and the search for ulterior motives distracts from what’s really going on.
America has always been steeped in conspiracy. It’s as much a part of the national culture as owning a gun: the arrogant may look down on it, but it’s not going anywhere. In 1951, the Communist senator from Wisconsin, Joseph McCarthy, said, “How can we account for our present situation unless we believe that the highest men in this government are colluding to bring us to disaster?” IN The Paranoid Style in American Politics Richard Hofstadter gave this as an example of “heated exaggeration, suspicion and conspiracy fantasy”. It’s a sign of the times that Penguin will publish the book as a modern classic at the end of May.
McCarthy was seen as a maniac by many on both sides of the aisle. JFK, a family friend, was wary of associating with the demagogue. Now the President himself shoots lies with abandon. Few doubt that he would lead a conspiracy to stay in power given the opportunity. Remember that he told an official in Georgia to “find” the votes he needed to win the state in 2020. Trump and the Maga movement operate in a different league of conspiracy theories. But he has given that kind of thinking the gloss of the presidential seal. They have climbed the ladder of respectability and become a feature of the Washington scene.
(Further reading: Trump will not find a magic solution in Beijing)
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