Accurate prediction
The same time patterns have appeared on multiple online platforms. Reports from The Guardian and The New York Times show that traders placed highly accurate bets on geopolitical events before they happened. On February 27, about 150 accounts staked $855,000 predicting US airstrikes in Iran the next day.
Sixteen accounts each earned more than $100,000. Soon after, a user on Polymarket – a platform where people predict real-world outcomes – made over $550,000 after predicting that Ali Khamenei – the country’s highest political and religious authority – would be ousted shortly before he was killed in an Israeli strike.
A complaint filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the U.S. regulator that oversees futures and derivatives markets — by Public Citizen cited a crypto-analytics firm that identified six “suspect insiders” who made a total of $1.2 million from similar predictions.
On April 7, at least 50 accounts again predicted a ceasefire hours before it was announced. Those financial forecasts, along with oil trading, “accurately predicted the exact timing of major developments,” according to the complaint, raising concerns about insider trading — using non-public information to gain a financial advantage.
Regulators demand answers
The repeated timing has attracted official attention in Washington. Ritchie Torres, a US lawmaker, has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate.
Public Citizen’s Craig Holman told Bloomberg: “It’s hard to believe that they would put up that much money, moments before an official announcement, based on mere chance.”
He added: “We are looking at a possible synchronized cross-market signal that suggests someone in the room is talking to traders.” Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the CFTC has begun looking into some of the trades, although it has not publicly confirmed a formal investigation.
Hard to prove insider trading
Experts say the issue is being complicated by the rapid growth of financial prediction markets. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to bet on the outcomes of political decisions, conflicts or economic events.
Craig Holman described the sector as: “a wild west phase… now it has spread to the stock market”. Even when trades look suspicious, proving wrongdoing is complex.
Much of the activity takes place through anonymous or crypto-based systems, where identities are hidden and transactions are difficult to trace.
Andrew Verstein, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, told The Guardian: “We can’t say at the outset whether any of these trades were illegal… But many bear the hallmarks of suspicious trades that would naturally warrant investigation.”
Joshua Mitts — a law professor at Columbia University — said enforcement faces practical limitations: “Having a law that can’t actually be effectively enforced… is kind of putting the cart before the horse.”
His research found that traders associated with suspicious activity achieved a success rate of nearly 70%, generating $143 million in timely betting profits.
High stakes for the markets
The Strait of Hormuz plays a critical role in global energy supplies, making any outage or reopening a major market-moving event. Its shutdown during the conflict pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel. Its reopening caused a sharp decline.
But analysts say the biggest concern now is not just price volatility. If traders are consistently able to act ahead of big announcements, it raises questions about whether global markets are operating fairly or whether some participants are trading with an invisible advantage.
For regulators, the issue goes beyond oil prices. It is about whether global markets reflect publicly available information – or whether key decisions are valued before the public even knows they exist.
Justin is a seasoned personal finance author and business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers confidently navigate today’s economy. Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a business correspondent at Reuters, reporting on stocks and economic trends in both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.
