Faith is falling in a new oil pipeline being selected for a fast-track federal review within the next year, a recent survey of business sentiment by ATB Cormark Capital Markets suggests.
The investment firm surveyed executives representing 24 energy services firms, 22 exploration and production companies and 17 institutional investors on a range of topics between March 18 and April 1.
The survey found that 46 percent of respondents said they believed it was either very likely or likely that a new pipeline project would be added to the list of projects considered to be in the national interest under federal legislation passed last year.
That’s down from 52 percent of respondents who expressed these views in a poll taken between August 28 and September 11 last year.
That was more than two months before Alberta and Ottawa announced a comprehensive energy deal that laid out the terms for a new West Coast oil pipeline to go ahead.
“People are losing faith that the Liberal government will actually fix any of the structural problems it created in the last 10 years,” said an unnamed executive at a publicly traded exploration and production company in a commentary written alongside the survey.
Another executive with a small private energy services company called for “less talk and more action” in a written comment.
“No (oil and gas) projects have come to fruition,” the executive wrote.
“Start building, or better yet just get out of the way of industry. We need to see clear and concise direction from the feds that will support new projects and accelerate them.”
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In the spring 2026 poll, 48 percent of respondents said they believed the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney would actively work toward expanding the energy sector, up from 37 percent in the fall 2025 poll — an opinion of the prime minister that is moving in a more positive direction than the prospect of a pipeline.
Premier Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding last November on a wide range of energy issues.
It included a pathway to determining a new West Coast oil sands pipeline suitable for simple review.
Such a project would send up to one million barrels a day to the West Coast for export to Asia, reducing Canada’s dependence on the US market. The Alberta government is preparing an application for the federal major projects office later this year, with a view to a private sector company eventually taking over.
The pipeline moving forward is tied to the construction of the massive Pathways carbon capture and storage project, and an eventual increase in the price of industrial carbon that would support its economics.
ATB Cormark’s survey period ended just in time for a deadline set out in the Memorandum of Understanding for agreements on Pathways funding and the implementation of a higher carbon price. Those parts remain unresolved.
Patrick O’Rourke, managing director of institutional equity research at ATB Cormark, said the gloomy outlook on the pipeline issue could be linked to the timing of the survey period, when there was anxiety about meeting deadlines.
Despite the skeptical survey responses, there was much about the Alberta-Ottawa deal that was constructive, he said.
“Even the fact that you brought the federal and provincial governments to the table together was something that was almost unattainable a few years ago,” he said.
Survey respondents also expressed more optimism about a proposal to revive part of the defunct Keystone XL transboundary pipeline — followed by South Bow Corp. along with Bridger Pipeline LLC – than a West Coast pipeline that so far no private sector company has expressed interest in building.
“We’re seeing a desire from the Canadian and American sides to continue to increase our ability to move barrels north-south,” O’Rourke said.
“The challenges around their movement from east to west are probably more important.”
The spring 2026 survey captured a time of extreme commodity price volatility, fueled by the war in the Middle East. Tanker shipments have been frozen only through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which 20 percent of the world’s crude supplies normally pass on its way to the open sea.
Global crude oil prices rose as much as 70 percent above pre-war levels, but have since fallen somewhat.
Eighty-six percent of exploration and production respondents reported an improved business outlook over the next six months, while 67 percent of energy services respondents said they expected activity levels to increase.
Meanwhile, 82 percent of investor respondents said they have become more bullish on energy over the past six months.
“Many of these businesses have business models that work very, very well with crude oil prices in the range of US$70 to US$75 (per barrel),” O’Rourke said.
“So I don’t think you need $90 to $100 of crude in any kind of length here to make these businesses compelling investments.”
&copies 2026 The Canadian Press
