Estonian Navy Commander Ivo Vark said Reuters that Estonia will not board ships that are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet”. more as “The risk of military escalation is too high.”
He elaborated: “The Russian military presence here in the Gulf of Finland has become much, much more visible” because of new, permanent Russian naval patrols, but “in the Atlantic Ocean and also in the North Sea there is very little Russian presence.” Thus, Russian ships are more likely to board there than in the Baltic.
The aforementioned patrols are the result of the efforts of the Chairman of the Russian Maritime Board Nikolai Patrushev, which he spoke about in an interview in mid-February that was analyzed. here at that time. Reuters also reported that “news service reporters aboard an Estonian navy ship in the Gulf of Finland on Friday observed a Russian navy corvette near a large group of empty tankers waiting their turn to enter a nearby Russian port and load oil.” This also belongs to Patrushev.
All it took was the presence of the Russian navy to make Estonia back down, thus suggesting that escort missions could make other countries retreat to waters further afield. However, for this to happen, the Russian Navy would need to escort groups of “shadow fleet” ships, as there are not enough ships to escort every single ship on a one-by-one basis. Most go to China and India, so these would be long missions that practically circle Eurasia via the Suez Canal.
It is there that the US and/or its allies can more easily board these ships if they have the will – but likely only with Egypt’s approval as they are not expected to violate their ally’s sovereignty by staging such missions in its territorial waters at the entrance or exit of the canal. British bases in Cyprus could be used in support of such missions in that scenario, as could the US base in Djibouti if the decision is made to intercept these ships near the Bab el Mandeb choke point.
The UK is not expected to unilaterally board Russian “shadow fleet” ships escorted by the Russian navy, so this would only happen with US approval. The UK could also seek US participation in any such mission as a guarantee that it will not be hung out to dry if Russia escalates. The US may not approve of this, let alone participate in it, as Putin is likely to authorize his navy to act against any force attempting to board the escorted tankers, and Trump does not seem interested in an escalation right now.
To ensure that neither the Americans nor the British naively assume that he is bluffing, Putin could make a public statement to that effect, although the Anglo-American Axis could then use the support of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia’s escorted “shadow fleet” so that Kiev would be the one against whom Moscow could then retaliate. Ukraine is already suspected having a drone base in Libya from which it has bombed two “shadow fleet” ships so far, and may expand its presence there with the support of its clients to stage more attacks.
Overall, while the Russian Navy has caused Estonia to back off from boarding more of its “shadow fleet” ships, and may deter others as well if they start escorting groups of these ships, Ukrainian drones are still a threat. In addition to including anti-drone technologies in future convoys, Russia may demand that the US order Ukraine to end its attacks as part of a series of mutual compromises to end the conflict, which is the best way to ensure the security of its offshore energy exports since Ukraine will not challenge the US.
