Nigel Farage’s team has won a victory over YouGov after a row over how the poll measured support for UK Reform. Farage claimed YouGov was breaking British Polling Council rules by underestimating support for Reform – it consistently ranks five points lower than other major polling firms.
YouGov said it used two metrics to analyze this support: overall voting intention and then constituency-specific voting intention, which takes tactical voting into account and therefore gives a lower number for Reform – but is more reflective of how tomorrow’s general election might play out. The poll has said it will publish both figures after Farage called the firm “fraudulent”.
YouGov had Reform polling at an average of 25 points, significantly lower than Opinium and More in Common, which both have the party at around 30 points on average. In these five points is the difference between Reform that split the right-wing vote in the election and coming out with about two dozen seats, or winning a majority of seats in the House of Commons and changing British politics.
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Farage’s pitch to donors, newspaper owners, potential defectors and potential voters – the groups whose support he thinks he needs to get into Number 10 – is that Reform is now the main party of the right, that the Tories are dead and that he can win the general election. The survey is one of his main pieces of evidence for this.
The reasons YouGov carried on as it did was not because it is plotting against Reform, but because it is paid a lot of money to produce the most accurate results. But after Farage’s successful barrage, YouGov will publish two figures and the newspapers will come up with the higher one. The reform leader poll is as much a tool for influencing opinion as it is for measuring it.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; get it every morning by subscribing to Substack here
(Further reading: Attention: Reform UK wants to join you in your bedroom)
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