Thousands of Liberals will be in Montreal this weekend for the party’s annual convention as will voters in the suburbs of Terrebonneabout 40 km to the north, get ready to cast ballots in a key primary on Monday.
The nearby location is fortuitous, said Marjorie Michel, the health minister and a longtime Quebec holiday organizer.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not helpful to have so many door knockers in the neighborhood.
“I can tell you, we’re giving it our all,” Michel said.
The convention in Montreal was planned and planned long before the Supreme Court of Canada overturned the result of last April’s election in Terrebonne in February.
It also means Prime Minister Mark Carney knew where the Liberals would be on Saturday when he set the election date for Monday.
Voters in two Toronto-area Liberal strongholds will also head to the polls on Monday, but the Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale primaries are not seen as competitive races. Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner recently said on her podcast that the Liberals are “expected to win hands down” in both.
In other words, barring something extraordinary, Carney’s year-long minority government will turn into a majority on Monday.
The question is whether the Bloc Québécois can regain its traditional stronghold in Terrebonne and weaken Liberal control over the House of Commons.
Both parties are working hard on a rematch between Liberal Tatiana Auguste and Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné.
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Wins in both Toronto races would give the Liberals 172 seats in the House of Commons, the minimum number for a majority government. But because the Speaker of the House is a Liberal, the government and opposition parties will each have 171 voting members.
Speakers do not usually vote in the House. They can be called to break a tie, in which case the Speaker will vote to maintain the status quo.
Sinclair-Desgagné said voters are not worried about that.
The fact that four MPs – three from the Conservative backbenches and one from the NDP – have crossed the floor to join the Liberals in recent months means the campaign is not about keeping the government in power, she said.
People are focused on things like public transportation, the cost of living, “and the proposed corridor for the Alto high-speed rail line, which includes more than half of the city of Terrebonne,” Sinclair-Desgagné said in a written statement in French.
Michel acknowledged that people at the doors are focused on the price of gas and housing.
Carney used Michel to lead the Liberal effort to win in Terrebonne. She said in an interview Wednesday that it’s a close race.
Dozens of Liberal MPs have stopped by Terrebonne to lend a hand, including all 43 from Quebec.
Carney’s office would not say whether he planned to campaign in Terrebonne over the weekend, but he was in the race Feb. 17, shortly before the primary was called.
Housing Minister Gregor Robertson and Quebec Lt. Col. Joel Lightbound are both scheduled to make announcements Thursday in neighboring ridings.
“This means Canadians are supporting Prime Minister Carney and his team if we win this election,” Michel said.
The ruling party has a considerable financial advantage over the Bloc.
North Star PR partner Fred DeLorey, a former Conservative campaign manager, was the first to point out that Elections Canada rules limit spending for each election, but a party with candidates in more than one race is able to split that money as it sees fit.
The Liberals, who are running in all three races, can outspend the Block in Terrebonne three to one.
A spokesperson for the Liberal Party of Canada would not say whether the party has taken up that option, only saying in an email that the Liberals follow all Elections Canada rules.
Michel said the atmosphere is very different from the last Quebec election, when the Liberals lost a stronghold seat in LaSalle – Emard – Verdun in the waning weeks of Justin Trudeau’s 2024 government.
“We had an army, and you can see even with the army, we didn’t win it,” she said.
This time, Michel said, people are feeling positive. “I would say the difference is, now we’re fighting to win.”
For its part, the Bloc has organized events and press conferences in Terrebonne with the leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet, who was not available for an interview, plans to hold a press conference Thursday in Terrebonne, surrounded by his 21 deputies, before going out knocking.
The push from both parties is to get their supporters to the polls.
Elections Canada reported that about 18,200 people voted in primary polls over the weekend, about 20 per cent of those eligible to vote in Terrebonne.
Voters will face a special write-in ballot after dozens of candidates registered as part of the Longer Ballot Committee protest, and Elections Canada has said it could slow results on Monday.
Blanchet brushed off concerns about this last month.
“The easiest solution is for Nathalie to win with a very large majority,” he told reporters in the House of Commons.
