Over the past 24 hours, Donald Trump has variously threatened to “take Iran’s oil”, “take Kharg Island” (Iran’s main oil export hub), claimed to be making “huge progress” in negotiations with a “NEW, MORE REASONABLE REGIME” and threatened to kill the country’s oil well plans entirely! if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened immediately.
This is not out of character. The US president’s wild swings between hyperbolic threats of imminent annihilation and claims that a major part of ending the war is in sight, often within the same social media post, are entirely consistent with how he has approached this war since he announced the first strikes on Iran in the early hours of February 28.
At the time, Trump framed the conflict with Iran as a historic mission to topple the ruling regime, enable the Iranians to “take over your government,” which he said would be “probably your only chance for generations,” and put a definitive end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Now, his war aims appear to have been reduced to convincing the American public that he has achieved some form of regime change – even if in reality a possibly even harsher version of the old regime is now in charge. Even more urgent is the solution to the spiraling problems this conflict has produced, namely Tehran’s newly demonstrated ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the impending disaster that predicts the global economy.
Trump’s defenders have long argued that his “crazy” approach to geopolitics is part of a genius strategy designed to keep his opponents off balance and extract stunning concessions as he pursues his next big deal. The problem for Trump is that Tehran also seems to see Trump’s increasingly apocalyptic statements as a negotiating tactic aimed as much at calming financial markets and easing oil prices as at getting them to the table for serious talks — and so they’re calling his bluff. The regime appears to be calculating that they can withstand continued bombing by the US and Israel for longer than Trump will be able to tolerate rising energy prices, especially in an election year.
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However, the end of this war, even if Trump were so inclined, is it is no longer a matter of simply declaring victory and going home. The risk is that Tehran then decides to continue to exert its control over one of the world’s most important maritime energy transit corridors for months to come, extracting a high price from its ability to threaten shipping in the strait. (There are reports that some tankers are already paying a $2 million fee to Iran for safe passage through the waterway.)
This leaves Trump thinking of an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, as Western analysts once, perhaps mistakenly, DESCRIBED Russia’s nuclear doctrine. The theory of the matter now circulating in Washington is that the US should Surrender a “final blow” to Tehran, which could include a ground attack along with an even more devastating bombing campaign. The exact form such an operation might take remains unclear. There are reports that Trump is weighing an offensive to seize three small islands in the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island, the northern Persian Gulf export terminal, and even a special forces raid to find and extract 400 kg of highly enriched uranium hiding somewhere in Iran since last summer’s B2 bombing raid during the 12-Day War.
with arrival from about 2,500 Marines over the weekend and thousands more on the way, the US is now thought to have about 50,000 personnel in the region. Along with a sizable armada of warships nearby, this gives Trump the ability to order a ground attack in the coming days. However, this remains a high-risk endeavor. Despite the extraordinary capabilities of the US military, capturing and – more importantly – holding Iranian territory would be a dangerous mission that threatens to take even more American lives. Thirteen American service members have already been killed and hundreds more injured. A ground attack would also risk Tehran carrying out its threats to escalate attacks across the Gulf, targeting its energy infrastructure and desalination plants if its facilities are bombed.
Trump has no good options. He can declare victory, claiming to have degraded Iran’s capabilities and doubling down on his fantastic claim to create a new regime, hoping that Tehran will play along and that the Americans will have forgotten their self-inflicted crisis by the midterm elections in November. But it risks humiliation if the Strait of Hormuz remains selectively closed. He could order a ground attack, but that risks American lives and another protracted conflict along the very lines he and his apparently calm Vice President JD Vance promised to avoid. Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or face “disappearance” is April 6. Assuming Tehran remains steadfast, we will soon learn which of these dangerous choices Trump has decided to embrace.
(Further reading: All shock)
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