By Danny Kemp and Beiyi Seow with Isabel Kua in Beijing
Just over two weeks before President Donald Trump meets his counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing, Chinese uncertainty over the US leader’s intentions and the impact of the Iran war hangs over the much-anticipated state visit.
Trump’s trip, his first to China in his second term, is aimed at signing a trade war truce that the two leaders shook hands with when they met in South Korea in October.
But for Beijing, which likes to carefully choreograph such events to avoid any possibility of embarrassment, Trump’s freewheeling style is proving a challenge.
A source familiar with the negotiations told AFP that Chinese officials expected more ambitious preparations for such a summit between the leaders of the rival superpowers.
The White House insisted, however, that preparations were going well for the visit from March 31 to April 2, with regular contacts and interactions with Beijing.
“Unlike the self-styled Biden administration that valued performance over results, the Trump administration is very comfortable with the planning of the trip, both in terms of logistics and delivery,” a White House official told AFP, referring to the allegation that former President Joe Biden used an automated device to sign documents.
“The President is looking forward to his visit to China, where he and President Xi will discuss a range of topics of importance to the world’s two largest economies.”
Trump is “intended to level the playing field for America’s farmers, manufacturers and working families,” the official added.
Trade war
Business leaders, however, have been concerned that as of earlier this week, invitations to be part of the American delegation had not gone out.
“It’s hard to imagine that the president wouldn’t want to have a strong delegation,” Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, said Tuesday.
“We think it’s important that this happens soon.”
Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies believes the two sides have discussed logistics but made less progress “on the ground.”
If business leaders get involved too late, it could cut the achievement short, he warned.
In a sign that both sides want to set the stage for Trump-Xi talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris this weekend.
The meeting is likely to aim to determine economic achievements to be announced at the leaders’ summit, Fudan University professor Wu Xinbo told AFP.
The stakes are high, with Washington this week announcing trade investigations into countries including China, opening the door for penalties to replace Trump’s tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court.
The visit comes after a turbulent year for US-China ties since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, as the countries fought an escalating tariff war after Trump imposed sweeping global duties in April.
Another concern is Taiwan, the self-governing island that some US officials believe Xi wants to conquer in 2027. Trump recently said he would decide soon whether to send more weapons to Taiwan, despite Xi’s warnings.
Iran in the shadows?
But perhaps the biggest cloud over the visit is the war in the Middle East.
“If this fight continues until April, then this will be the main talking point in the Trump-Xi meeting,” Benjamin Ho, an assistant professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told AFP.
China has condemned the US-Israeli attacks on Iranwhich have hit oil imports in the world’s second largest economy at a sensitive time.
However, Beijing has shied away from concrete action to help Tehran, a longtime ally, or from direct confrontation with Washington.
Trump has also downplayed any rift, instead portraying the fight as vital to keeping the Strait of Hormuz clear of oil traffic.
“We’re really helping China here,” Trump said Monday.
China’s Middle East investments and investment decisions may take a hit, but its perceived neutrality may help ships transit through the strait, as it did with the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Analysts said China is unlikely to play any mediating role, preferring to keep its distance.
Instead, Xi could use the summit to project an image of statesmanlike stability in contrast to the turbulence unleashed by his American visitor — and avoid Iran altogether.
“Chinese officials probably want to avoid any public display of toughness with Trump,” said Jean-Loup Samaan, senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
