If you want to understand why Hungary’s general election on April 12 will be geopolitically important, and how today’s geopolitics is different from any other time in the 80 years since World War II, you only need to learn which two governments have openly supported the current Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban.
Surprisingly, they are the governments of America and Russia. Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are closely aligned to support a man who has now led Hungary for 16 years and who has built what he proudly calls “an illiberal democracy”.
We will find out around midnight, Hungarian time, on April 12, which part of Orbán’s formula has proved more powerful, the “illiberal” part or the “democracy” part, and thus whether the large lead in the polls consistently held by his opponent, Peter Magyar, has been successfully translated into a parliamentary majority.
Hungary is a small country of only 10 million people and has a small economy that has stagnated under Orbán’s rule. But as Putin and Trump’s interest implies, the outcome will have disproportionate importance for Ukraine and the European Union, a country and a supranational organization that Putin and Trump despise.
The result will be important for Ukraine, because since the start of the full Russian invasion attempt in 2022, Orbán’s Hungary has acted as Putin’s not-so-secret agent inside the EU to cut off and where possible block EU aid to Ukraine. His latest action, just a few weeks before the election, was to block the special EU loan to Ukraine of 90 billion euros, which had been agreed as early as last December.
Fortunately, despite not yet receiving that funding, Ukraine is currently gaining an edge in the war with Russia. Its domestically produced drones and missiles are now allowing it to match or even exceed the daily volume of Russian strikes. And it has regained some territory from Russian forces, while inflicting increasing casualties on its adversary.
But to continue this momentum, funds and supplies will be required from EU countries and the United Kingdom, both through the blocked loan and through other support. Ukraine knows it can no longer expect any support from Trump: perhaps its best hope is that Trump and US Vice President JD Vance will be so distracted by their negotiations with Iran that they won’t have time to attack Ukraine.
One of the great mysteries of today’s geopolitics is that Trump and Vance seem oblivious to the fact that Russian support is one of the reasons the Iranian regime has remained resilient to six weeks of American and Israeli attacks.
It is understandable, if unfortunate, when Trump acts and talks as if he believes that the superpowers of Russia, China and America can abide by their own, essentially “wrestling is fair” rules, while smaller countries must behave differently. But it is truly strange to see an American president seemingly indifferent to the fact that Russia and China are actively seeking to hinder the United States by supporting its enemies.
It is also unclear why Orban wants to allow Ukraine to be reoccupied by the Russian Empire, given that his political youth was spent campaigning against the Soviet Union’s control of Hungary. However, part of his political success has been built on using xenophobia to rally support, whether against Ukrainians, Jews or other targets.
(If you want to read more in-depth about how Hungary has become an illiberal state under Orbán, it will be hard to beat this excellent essay Johan Norberg for the Cato Institute: “How Viktor Orban’s Hungary erodes the rule of law and free markets.”)
Hungary is also one of the few EU countries that still imports Russian oil and natural gas. In fact, it has increased its dependence on Russian oil and gas since the start of the war, not decreased it. When money is involved, the hypocrisy becomes less of a mystery.
Trump has repeatedly criticized EU countries for continuing to buy Russian oil and gas, perhaps either not realizing, or simply not caring, that the main culprit is his friend Viktor Orban. Last week, he sent Vance to Budapest to campaign for Orbán’s re-election, and Vance dared to accuse the EU and Ukraine of interfering in a foreign country’s election — which neither of them is actually doing, unlike him.
The EU leadership is surely hoping that Orban will lose, because under his leadership Hungary has become a hindrance and an embarrassment. It has hampered support for Ukraine but has also slowed other common policies, including a common policy governing immigration and asylum that will finally come into force this year.
It is an embarrassment because among the member states that have joined the EU since the great enlargement in 2004, it is the one that has degenerated the most in terms of corruption, the rule of law and democracy.
If Hungary were to apply for EU membership today, it would not be accepted because it no longer meets the EU’s criteria for those measures. His return, particularly on corruption, but also on judicial independence and media freedom, has exposed the lack of any enforcement mechanism for members once they have been admitted.
The only weapon the EU has is the power to withhold funds, which has belatedly been done to Hungary. But Orban has exploited this by turning the EU into one of Hungary’s supposed enemies, alongside Ukraine and others. The election will show if this tactic still works.
Putin, Trump and Orban have formed what is effectively an anti-EU alliance, accusing the entire European Union of representing a major threat to European, and therefore Western, civilization. This is why Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been wise to distance herself from Orban during the election campaign after initially making the mistake of appearing in an Orban campaign video (alongside the likes of Binyamin Netanyahu and Marine Le Pen).
But this is also why her long-term association with Orban has been a major political mistake: it runs counter to the generally pro-EU and pro-Ukraine stance she has taken, casting doubt on her sincerity and vindicating the charge that she too would very much like to lead an illiberal democracy, controlling the media and civil society in ways that could preserve her power by rewriting it.
The elections in Hungary are of practical importance, for Ukraine and for the functioning of the EU. But it also has an even greater symbolic importance, for the future health of democracy in Europe and for the defense of the European way of life against the Trump-Putin-Orban attack on it.
A victory for Peter Magyar and his opposition party would not be an ideological change, because in political matters he is considered a rightist and is even a former colleague of Orban. But it would be a shift back towards the rule of law, towards democratic accountability and towards a cooperative and civilized view of Europe.
This change would be difficult, as Orbán’s allies are deeply entrenched in many Hungarian institutions. But it is important that the shift begins. And it’s just as important that the hostile forces of Trump, Vance and Putin are slapped in the face.
This English original of an article published in Italian on Saturday morning by La Stampa is also available, along with many other articles, at Bill Emmott’s Global View.
