Anas Sarwar’s new party political broadcast is, as these things go, a hoot. The film follows him along the campaign trail, with picturesque views of Scotland’s cities, islands and countryside. There are children, pets and pubs, and plenty of saltire, all backed by a stirring song: “There’s a place I know, and magic where flowers grow and beauty where rivers flow, over hills and country lanes, Scotland is a place called home.”
The aim is to capture Sarwar’s personality in two and a half minutes: warm, optimistic, passionately Scottish and full of energy; ready for government, ready for change. It does it quite well. Indeed, it feels like something the SNP might have pulled out during the independence referendum. You should always be wary of politicians and what they will tell you during election campaigns. To spend 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, many become something less than human: robotically confident of their success, Panglossian about their party’s prospects (no matter what the polls say), bleak messages until the votes are counted and reality intervenes.
To be fair, if you’re a Labor candidate in this Holyrood election, that’s probably what it takes to get out of bed in the morning. A party that looked like a winner until shortly after the last general election is in deep trouble with just a month to go. Having started the campaign some 14 points behind the SNP, the latest polls suggest the gap may have widened beyond 20 per cent. If the initial figure can be largely blamed on the influence of a deeply unpopular Westminster government and prime minister, the surge in recent weeks is harder to understand.
A bit like a football manager in the early days of a wholesale rebuild, Labour’s mantra is to think “process, not outcome”. There is a focus on the “important operational assets” of the party. She has more money than the SNP and is “flooding the area” on social media. There is a belief that Sarwar is a more energetic and charismatic leader than John Swinney, that Labor has a stronger team at its headquarters and that it has more campaigners on the doorstep. The worrying poll numbers have created a sense of defiance and determination rather than desolation and pessimism.
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Despite what party leaders believe is a strong first ten days of campaigning, there is still little evidence that the numbers are likely to change in any profound way. Hopes are based on the fact that about four out of ten voters have not yet decided. Every effort is being made to stick the poor record of the ruling SNP to the ruling party, which is doing its best to talk about anything but that. Swinney is more inclined to lift Keir Starmer’s mistakes and point to a golden future under independence. The electorate, understandably, is also confused by the current occupant of the White House and his threats to wipe out civilizations – it’s hard to change minds if people aren’t paying attention.
We have, as predicted, reached the retail stage of the campaign. Labor will launch its manifesto on Monday, which will be framed around “getting the grassroots right” and “fixing the SNP mess”. There is a sense that the public are so battered by the severity of the cost of living crisis and the failure of the SNP (and the failure of Tory-Labour at Westminster) that they are not convinced that big change is possible anymore: that their ambitions have been reduced to “do no harm”. Sarwar is promising a £100m package to address living costs. A further £350 million will be distributed to fix the estimated 4.8 million potholes that blight Scotland’s roads. There is a promise of 125,000 new homes, 9,000 apprenticeships, higher standards in schools and an NHS that is there “when you need it”. All of this ties in with what the research says are Labor’s top concerns for voters. It’s basic stuff, not a radical new direction.
There is also hope that the Reform has reached its peak. Recent polls have suggested her support has slipped slightly after a rocky start to her Holyrood campaign. It has lost a number of candidates and, as one Labor insider told me, its leader Malcolm Offord “is having a ‘mare'”. If the insurgent party has lost momentum, then there is a chance that Labor voters who were considering switching will instead flock back in time for 7 May.
Faith, optimism, hope, determination… these things can only take you so far. With four weeks to go, and a significant SNP lead in sight, there is very little time left for Labor to turn things around. Sarwar’s broadcast ends with him walking down a Glasgow street as a crowd of people come out to follow him – think famous Rocky scene, but at walking pace. Will enough Scots follow on May 7? Honestly, it’s not looking good.
(Further reading: Goodbye to a dishonest and dismal Holyrood parliament)
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