Donald Trump’s latest comments on the war in Iran — one he started in February alongside Benjamin Netanyahu — raise yet more questions about the president’s grasp of global politics. In a broadcast to the American people, he asserted that it is now up to Britain and other non-combatant countries to sort out the mess in the Strait of Hormuz. He has also suggested that the US may withdraw from NATO.
It is another blow in a campaign of British and Euro-bashing by key figures in the US administration as they rage against the consequences of their actions. Last month, US Vice President JD Vance assured angry US voters that European countries were “suffering more than us”.
This, most likely, will not play well with British politicians who have previously had to enjoy the limelight of Mar-a-Lago. Already, something is happening. In opinion polls of the British parliamentary vote, Reform remains in first place. But the party has experienced a measurable decline over the past two months that is now consistent enough to be described as more than just a blip, anomaly or fluke.
In a poll conducted by Politico, The reform has fallen from 29 percent at the end of January to 25 percent at the end of March. The party still has a clear lead, although the electoral implications of these figures are quite different. In a first-past-the-post, 29 or 30 per cent could be enough to break the traditional Labour-Tory duopoly and win a majority of seats in the House of Commons in a general election. Twenty-five percent would be enough to nuke the Conservatives, but still come away with only a few dozen seats (by comparison, in 1983 the SDP won 25.4 percent of the vote and took only 23 seats).
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The war in Iran goes some way to explaining this drop in popularity. In early March, defense and security became the third most important issue for voters, according to YouGov. The economy and immigration were neck and neck for most of 2025. Not anymore. The economy is now the most important issue for ten-point voters as the energy price shock begins to be felt by ordinary people in their daily lives. And Keir Starmer has taken every opportunity to remind voters that Nigel Farage – who has been a close ally of Trump for a decade – was initially enthusiastic about the war. While he is still deeply unpopular, the Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have improved (albeit slightly) since early March. All indications so far are that the war is changing the attitudes of the British public and not in favor of the Reformation.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; get it every morning by subscribing to Substack here
(Further reading: Trump’s Roadless War)
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