Trump’s decision to postpone his ultimatum to “delete” power plants is a welcome de-escalation for global markets and the Gulf countries, which faced the consequences of Iranian reprisals. But while the news drew sighs of relief, Europe cannot ignore its continued exposure to the region.
While some will see this as justification for caution in bending US requirementsit has simultaneously become impossible for Europeans to sit on the sidelines. Trump may have chosen war, but Europe is facing the consequences, more exposed because of its energy vulnerabilities and simple geography – which brings the continent within striking distance of the world’s leading state sponsor of terror – Iran.
This weekend that threat increased, after it was revealed that Iran fired two medium-range ballistic missiles at the US-UK base in Diego Garcia, approximately 4,000 km from Iran. Although the missiles were shot down, they demonstrated Iran’s previously undiscovered long-range offensive capability — one that requires far greater resources to defend against.
Given that these weapons were developed while Iran was the second most sanctioned country in the world, it is clear that economic and diplomatic orders alone cannot counter a regime bent on resistance to the West – and now ready to strike neighbors that host US bases. Indeed, Iran’s ability to launch such deadly warheads, despite heavy US-Israeli bombing, only underscores the threat.
Trump has already leaned heavily on the Europeans to throw their military weight behind the intervention, pushing for it some have resisted more than others, not without good reason. But as Trump himself has often emphasized, the Europeans are in the firing line even if they sit on the fence. And the danger posed by ballistic missiles cannot be invisible.
Add the global to the equation lack of air defense systems and the staggering cost asymmetry of taking out the drones they already have shocked the EU nationsand the need for a concerted strategy to counter Iranian hostility becomes imperative. This may not be Europe’s war, but it is definitely Europe’s problem.
Briefing
The EU should start gathering gas – The European Commission has called on the EU countries to begin filling gas storage facilities slowly and steadily to avoid exacerbating price pressure caused by the war in the Middle East. The Energy Commissioner recommended that the targets be reduced to 80%, instead of the previously mandated 90%.
Trump withdraws from Iran ultimatum – Donald Trump announced that The US will abstain from the downing of Iranian power plants to allow the advancement of new talks on ending the war. Trump said recent talks with Iranian officials have been “in-depth, detailed and constructive.”
Mercosur gets closer – The trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur will stroke temporarily from May 1, which means that tariffs on most goods will be removed by both sides. The move has been widely opposed by countries that oppose Mercosur, such as France.
All over Europe
Melon loss ratio – Italy’s referendum on justice reform has been decided give a shot to Giorgia Meloni, with early results showing that her hopes of reshaping the balance of power between judges and prosecutors have been dismissed by the Italians. The vote was widely seen as a broader verdict on Meloni’s leadership.
Frederiksen ready for victory – In the run-up to the Danish general election on Tuesday, Social Democratic Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen looks increasingly likely is likely to win a third term – The open question is whether it builds its majority with left or center parties. Polls consistently place her party as the largest by a clear margin, making her the most likely to form the next government.
Ukraine hits Russian oil port – Ukraine shot down the drones at a key Russian oil port near the Finnish border on Monday, Moscow and Kiev said, causing a major fire at the facility. Satellite images showed flames and thick plumes of black smoke rising into the air from the oil terminal in the Russian city of Primorsk, which is located in the Gulf of Finland and is about 50 kilometers from the EU and NATO.
