For years, Washington has prioritized countering China’s growing influence and addressing Russia’s revisionism, with national security strategies under both Republican and Democratic administrations focusing on them. Along with Iran and North Korea, these four countries make up the “axis of autocracies,” a grouping of states that share an ideological alignment against the United States and its allies. As the United States and Israel continue their war with Iran, the perceived lack of support given by Moscow and Beijing to Tehran has highlighted the group’s perceived weakness. But Donald Trump’s actions against Iran have done little to mitigate the long-term threat posed by Russia or China. Either way, the war is bringing more and more benefit to them.
After Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, cooperation between these states increased. Iran provided cheap, effective front-line drones; North Korea Posted thousands of troops to fight on the front lines; while China SUPPLY military equipment and technology for Russia.
But questions still remain about how strong a partnership these countries have. Russia and North Korea are only two nations of this group that have a mutual defense alliance. At the beginning of the war, Tehran’s allies responded first with statements rather than concrete actions, with China calling out that the conflict be “immediately terminated”.
Now, after a month, the level of help is becoming clear. Moscow has provided Tehran with targeting data, sharing the information required for Iran to carry out its attacks against US forces in the region. While China has continued to offer support for avoiding Tehran’s sanctions. However, Russia is occupied fighting its own war, which has consumed its military capabilities and every available economic resource. China’s lack of involvement is driven more by its flexibility in world politics. Beijing does not want to be drawn in a great war and aims to guard its extensive relations with many different Gulf countries.
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These very real limits on the level of support the axis of autocracies can provide to its members have led some analysts to see war as an easy and effective way for the US to severely weaken a core member of the group and deal a blow to the axis in general. But the conflict is actively increasing the fortunes of Moscow and Beijing. Russia has long faced sanctions over its decision to launch its invasion of Ukraine. including a cap on oil prices and an increase STRIKING in Russia’s shadow tanker fleet. However, in an effort to ease the growing energy crisis caused by the war, the Trump administration temporarily REMOVE sanctions against Russian oil. A decision that has allowed Moscow to win the most money from its oil exports since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The war is also providing a potential windfall for Russia beyond oil. India, eager to secure fertilizer ahead of the summer planting season, is exploring the potential to increase its purchases from Russia, among other nations.
China is benefiting from the Iran war, both economically and strategically. China is one of the only countries with ability to transform coal into petroleum products and other chemicals, and its petrochemical companies have seen a SET UP in their share prices. It is also proving to be a boon for Chinese renewable energy companies, such as countries look secure and diversify their energy supplies away from dependence on oil and gas. But the biggest benefit for Beijing is geopolitical. The war with Iran is exposing the limits of Washington and consumer the munitions and capabilities needed to deter China and maintain an active presence in the Indo-Pacific.
Even Iran, in the midst of an active war, is receiving a potential income from the United States. The White House’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian offshore oil could give the regime in Tehran a unexpected luck up to 14 billion dollars. Once the war ends, Tehran will walk away from the conflict by both setting the precedent of closing the strait and demonstrating the ability to do so, adding a dangerous new option to Tehran’s toolbox.
Ultimately, the biggest boost to the axis of autocracies may be the stress the Iran war has put on the dynamic between the United States and its allies.
Relations between Washington and its transatlantic allies have been strained since the start of Trump’s second administration. The crisis over Greenland had already pushed the relationship to its limits, and Iran has only made the crisis worse. uk initially refused to allow the US to use its bases in the war, a decision that was overturned but still lasted “a long time”. according to to Trump. Spain, which has continued to deny US access to its bases, faced threats from Washington stopping all trade with Madrid. German leaders have too criticized the war, calling it a “fatal mistake”. Allies and the United States have yet to agree on the way forward, although some allies have issued statements pledging their support to ensure that the strait remains free and open, but these operations are likely to do OCCUR only after hostilities have ended.
In Asia, where the Trump Administration’s National Defense Strategy RECOGNIZES China as the second most powerful country in the world and calls to “ensure that neither China nor anyone else can dominate us or our allies”, said Washington. moving marines from Okinawa and a THAAD missile defense system from South Korea in the Middle East. Actions that raise very real concerns in Tokyo and Seoul about the seriousness of Washington’s commitment to Asia, containing China and supporting allies in the region.
For the United States, the war in Iran is burning through ammunition, undermining relations with allies and raising serious questions about Washington’s ability to prioritize countermeasures against its adversaries as a core tenet of its foreign policy. China and Russia are serious threats, but neither is invincible. Both face very real economic constraints, demographic challenges and questions about how capable their militaries really are. And the Iran war has made clear the limits of the partnership with Beijing. The United States has worked to limit the reach and power of its adversaries before, by imposing sanctions or limiting the export of critical technologies, and there is no reason it cannot do so again.
It remains to be seen how the war will end. But Iran is likely to become weakened but still confident and aggressive, posing a lasting threat to US allies in the region. The biggest challenge will be in Moscow and Beijing, and the United States should not trade a short-term victory in Iran for a long-term position of weakness.
(Further reading: The West cannot understand Iran)
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