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The rate of global warming has accelerated at a higher rate since 2015 than in any decade. since records began in 1880, according to a new study that removes the background “noise” of natural fluctuations. However, not everyone agrees with the report’s findings.
In the study, published Friday (March 6) in the journal Geophysical Research LetterResearchers use statistical evidence to show global warming has accelerated over the past decade. which they say is the first time scientists have identified it. “Statistically significant acceleration of global warming” since 2015
“Global warming trends nearly doubled after 2014,” study co-author Stefan RahmstorfHead of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany told Live Science via email: “The acceleration in the rate of global warming means we will cross the 1.5°C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold sooner,” he said, adding that they were surprised by the strong surge.
Between 1970 and 2015, the average global warming rate was peg At just under 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 F) per decade, over the past 10 years, researchers found an estimated warming rate of 0.35 C (0.63 F) per decade. The study found that global average surface temperatures are likely to continue increasing.
In general, the researchers argue that the magnitude and rate of warming over the past 150 years exceeds the magnitude and rate of change that occurred in the past. 24,000 yearsThis includes the end of the last time. ice age.
But it is difficult to tease out how much of this accelerating warming is due to humans. greenhouse gases Greenhouse gas emissions and how much can be attributed to natural influences on the climate, such as childRahmstorf and his co-authors Grant Fosterwho is a retired weather analyst Want to eliminate these natural fluctuations to better understand global warming trends?
“The key is to reduce ‘noise’ in the data, i.e. removing the effect of natural variance to achieve a better signal-to-noise ratio,” Rahmstorf said, explaining that this makes the signal more visible.
Rahmstorf and Grant used five established global temperature datasets, including a temperature dataset from NASA; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Berkeley Earth, they then eliminated three environmental factors that cause global warming: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle; volcanic eruption and variations in sunlight and testing datasets for accelerating global warming since the 1970s.
Their findings show how global warming is accelerating. Finally, they estimated the rate of warming by developing a model that takes into account every change. Decades since 1895
Research results show that “Global warming has accelerated at a statistically significant rate since approximately 2015,” they wrote in the study. statementRahmstorf said the certainty rate was 98% and was consistent across data sets and analysis methods.
If the current rate of warming continues he added This article and previous research show that we will pass 1.5 C (2.7 F) of warming by 2030.
Disagreement in the field
But not all researchers are confident in Rahmstorf and Grant’s findings. The method of removing these variables from the analysis is imperfect and may introduce residual effects. Zeke HousefatherResearch scientist at Berkeley Earth tells Live Science He argued in paper Published last year, it was found that anthropogenic or anthropogenic activities are causing the Earth’s surface temperature to increase. This is also linked to faster sea level rise and changes in rainfall on land.
“There is broad agreement that there has been a detectable acceleration in global warming in recent years,” he said, “but it is not clear how much of the increase in warming has occurred over the past decade. It is a forced response (or) unforced variation.”
Robert LundStatisticians from the University of California, Santa Cruz agree that there is strong evidence that the planet is warming. But it is uncertain whether we are experiencing a rapid increase in the rate of warming. Lund, which uses the law of probability. climate change Mannequin is one of the authors of Year 2024 paper who argue that the rate of global warming has increased recently This is not yet detectable, although 2023 and 2024 are expected to be very hot years, he told Live Science. But we need to be cautionary while claiming that the planet is suddenly warming. “There is no statistical evidence for that,” he said.
Lund encountered the problem in various ways. In analyzing factors like El Niño, for example, he said we have to take into account the uncertainties created by models. Still can’t catch it. Complex interactions between the atmosphere and oceans However, the author did not do this, he noted.
Meanwhile, Lund and Hausfather are wary of the warming trend. They agree that we are close to crossing the threshold set out in paris agreementIt aims to keep the rate of global warming at 2 C above pre-industrial levels. and continue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.
It seems like the world is headed in the right direction these days. Greenhouse gas emissions gap report It found that the planet will accelerate past the 1.5 C threshold over the next decade. This could double the share of people exposed to extreme heat, Live Science reported last November.
For Rahmstorf, the study also serves as a warning. “We need to move much faster to replace fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas and leave them behind completely,” he said.
