He said most owners continue to rely on Dubai’s mainstays, which remain intact.
“Most owners invested in Dubai because of its structural strengths and those fundamentals haven’t changed. So there’s no strong reason to leave based purely on the headlines.”
Listings grow without pressure
Property listings have risen in recent weeks, although growth remains gradual. Inventory is up just over 5%, with none of the sharp increases that would normally signal a sell-off.
The composition of the lists provides further insight. A significant portion of the increase comes from properties that were already on the market and have been re-listed, suggesting recycling of supply rather than a wave of new sellers.
“A 5% increase in listings, without a spike, looks a lot more like normal market breakdown than a sign of concern,” Mohamed said.
A closer look shows that about 65% of additional listings are properties that come back on the market after not selling earlier. This indicates that the existing supply is being recycled.
Buyers move on to the next supply
While owners are holding their positions, buyers are changing the way they use capital. Off-plan transactions now make up the majority of deals.
Approximately 63% of transactions in recent weeks have come from the off-plan segment, reflecting a clear shift in preference.
“The strong tilt towards off-plan transactions is being driven by a mix of continued long-term confidence and a more pragmatic view of the short-term rental environment,” Mohamed said.
Investors continue to support Dubai’s long-term growth story. At the same time, current lease terms are shaping decisions.
“The immediate rental market is currently less attractive, so some buyers prefer to delay exposure to current operating conditions.”
Demand is moving towards projects with delivery from 2027 onwards, allowing investors to wait out short-term uncertainty.
Pressure mounts on short-term rentals
The impact is more visible in specific segments. Short-term rental operators are seeing a turnaround, with occupancy and daily rates falling.
About 5% of owners are considering selling at discount levels, with the majority in this segment.
“This behavior may persist as long as conditions remain stable. But if uncertainty starts to affect broader rental demand, vacancies or financing conditions, then the pressure shifts from sentiment to cash flow and then a more selective sell-off may emerge,” Mohamed said.
Prices hold, activity slows
Prices have remained stable in both sales and rental listings. The adjustment is coming through the pace of transactions.
A Bayu spokesperson said there are no signs of a price correction at this stage.
“Instead, any short-term correction is more likely to appear through temporary slowdowns in transaction speeds, softer levels of inquiry or slightly longer decision cycles, rather than outright price declines.”
Buyer activity dipped briefly before recovering to more than 80% of normal levels within days. The model points to caution, not attraction.
“The data point to short-term care followed by re-engagement,” the spokesman said.
Tenant behavior is changing, renovations are becoming more common, and relocation decisions are more deliberate.
“Tenants may increasingly prioritize renovations over relocation, especially when the price remains within expected ranges,” the Bayu spokesperson said.
Affordability is becoming a bigger factor in decision making. Moves are happening, but with more scrutiny on value.
Competition moves to the asset level
Performance is becoming more asset specific. Owners are forced to look closely at how their units compare to nearby options.
“The main question is why would a tenant choose this unit over others nearby,” Mohamed said.
Location and tenant profile are playing a bigger role. Short-stay areas remain exposed to fluctuations in travel demand. Established residential communities continue to attract long-term renters. Business districts are attracting professionals focused on convenience and amenities.
“In this environment, it’s less about pushing for higher rent and more about maintaining occupancy with minimal downtime,” Mohamed said.
Risk varies by segment
Exposure varies by market. Investor-charged communities, especially those with a high proportion of non-resident buyers, are more sensitive to changes in sentiment.
Transaction activity in these areas can slow down more quickly when uncertainty increases.
Funding adds another layer. Communities with higher mortgage exposure could see demand soften if lending conditions tighten or approvals take longer.
Key luxury assets are showing stronger resilience, supported by long-term equity and limited supply.
A market that sets its own pace
The property market in Dubai is not seeing a sharp change in direction. Prices are holding, liquidity remains present and owners are in no rush to exit.
“What we are seeing is not a market in retreat, but a market that is becoming more selective,” Mohamed said.
The change is in behavior. Buyers are more intentional, renters are more cautious, and landlords are focusing more closely on how their properties compete. The next phase will depend on whether uncertainty begins to affect demand, financing or utilization in a more sustainable way.
Nivetha Dayanand is Assistant Business Editor at Gulf News, where she spends her days unpacking money, markets, aviation and the big changes shaping life in the Gulf. Before returning to Gulf News, she launched Finance Middle East, complete with a podcast and video series. Her reporting has taken her from breaking news to feature-length shows and high-profile interviews. Nivetha has interviewed Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed Al Saud, Indian ministers Hardeep Singh Puri and N. Chandrababu Naidu, the IMF’s Jihad Azour, and a long list of CEOs, regulators and founders who are reshaping the region’s economy. An Erasmus Mundus journalism alum, Nivetha has shared classrooms and newsrooms with journalists from more than 40 countries, which perhaps explains her weakness for data, context and a good follow-up question. When she’s away from her keyboard (AFK), you’ll most likely find her at the gym with an Eminem playlist, enjoying One Piece, or exploring games on her PS5.
