If the polls are to be believed, Wales is on track for its first non-Labour government in 27 years after the Senedd election on May 7. The last one YouGov MRP survey it puts Plaid Cymru on course to win 43 seats – just six short of the 49 needed for a majority. According to the same poll, the Green Party is predicted to make a breakthrough, winning 10 of the 96 seats on offer (the party currently has no members of the Senedd).
Plaid Cymru and the Green Party should, in theory, be natural allies. Both parties sit to the left of Labor and have recently benefited – in by-elections such as Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton – from being the progressive option for protest voters. There is widespread speculation that the two parties could form some sort of coalition or confidence and supply arrangement in the next Welsh government.
But after Tuesday’s Green Party campaign launch, relations between the two parties appear to have soured. Speaking in Cardiff alongside the party’s national leader Zack Polanski, Anthony Slaughter – the leader of the Welsh Greens – described his party as “the only left-wing party in Wales”. Slaughter also said the Welsh Greens are poised to be “kingmakers” in the Senedd. Tessa Marshall, a Green candidate in Wales, went further, criticizing Plaid Cymru and adding: “Plaid is not a left-wing party.”
This drew criticism from Plaid Cymru figures. Carrie Harper, a Plaid Cymru Senedd candidate, described the comments as “seriously disappointing”. She added: “Voting Green could enable reform in many places in Wales.”
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However, figures from both sides are privately critical of each other. A Plaid Cymru source warned it does not help voters to assume the result on May 7 will be a Plaid-Green coalition.
In preparation for government, Plaid Cymru officials are said to have spoken to counterparts in the SNP to learn from their experience of governing in Scotland. This has included lessons from the SNP’s co-operation agreement with the Scottish Greens (a separate party from the Green Party of England and Wales). Although there have been no formal talks between Plaid Cymru and the Greens, Plaid is treading carefully.
The Greens seem equally cautious. A Green Party source said New statesman that the party would approach any deal with Plaid Cymru with clear red lines. They have also been in contact with their Scottish counterparts. The source said: “When the SNP started to tone things down, the Scottish Greens left the government. It’s not about getting a seat at the table for us – it’s about delivering real change.”
Tension is inevitable when both parties are competing for a similar pool of voters. Briefings and counter-briefings are typical in the run-up to elections. But if the polls are correct, then after May 7, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Greens may have little choice but to work together to form a stable government in Cardiff Bay.
(Further reading: The Greens who want to drill the North Sea)
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