The urgency of climate action is no longer abstract. Across the UK we are seeing the effects: schools closing during extreme heat, hospitals declaring critical incidents and transport networks faltering in weather conditions they simply weren’t designed for.
A red Met Office weather warning, issued for only the second time in our history, has highlighted that what once seemed exceptional risks turning into a deadly norm. 40 degree British summers are here, and they’re the new normal.
As politicians, we need to take seriously the risks climate change poses to people, families and communities across the country – the extreme weather we’re seeing, which is likely to get worse in the coming years, affects every part of our lives.
Public opinion recognizes this reality. Voters are not fatalists and policymakers shouldn’t be either. Some 81 per cent of voters believe the UK is not prepared for the worst impacts of climate change, but 59 per cent still believe we could be. This is a critical political opportunity. As the Committee on Climate Change has made clear, adaptation and preparedness must go hand in hand with mitigation through net zero. Protecting people now through resilient infrastructure, secure energy and prepared public services while also preventing future harm is a unifying proposition.
In 2022, while working at IPPR, I undertook some research in which narratives are most effective in persuading climate voters. I worked on this with Steve Akehurst, now director of Persuasion UK. Our findings were clear: the most compelling climate narratives were not transactional arguments about jobs or bills, but simple, value-driven stories rooted in our shared future: “global leadership”, “climate impacts” and “future generations”. These messages consistently cut across demographics, including the least engaged voters.
This is crucial to understanding the type of coalition of voters that Labor needs to build and maintain. To understand the broad coalition that Labor can hold, we need to look at the issues that resonate in its various parts. Climate change is one of them. It is not always the loudest, but it is constantly present. It speaks to the anxieties of progressive voters, to the values of younger generations, and to the daily concerns of families already feeling the impact of extreme weather.
Many voters, especially those moving tactically to Labor from the Conservatives, do not prioritize climate as a key issue. But they are not hostile towards him either. In fact, anti-net-zero messages tend to resonate only with a relatively small core. For the broader group of swing voters, the climate is simply of low importance. This creates a challenge and an opportunity.
My former co-author has taken over local voting via Persuasion UK with Convergent Opinion on Makerfield voters, showing that the result was the product of a carefully constructed coalition that united progressive voters, while also stemming losses from the right by attracting “soft” Conservative voters in 2024 – 8-10 per cent of whom have shown left-wing parties stable enough to vote to stay at the center of reform.
In a country where national polls showed Reforma as the clear favorite to win, Andy Burnham performed by more than 30 points. Labor must be able to bring together diverse coalitions of voters in seats across the country if we are to win the next general election. This includes traditional Labor voters, younger progressives who may be drawn to the Greens and groups of more skeptical voters who have moved between parties in recent years.
Across the country, we need to be able to hold together those inclined to move left, while at the same time appealing to voters who might otherwise have been tempted by anti-establishment messages from the right.
As recent research by Persuasion UK shows, pro-climate positioning helps keep voters on the left of Labor without costing support from the right. Silence or withdrawal, by contrast, risks losing progressive voters while gaining nothing in return.
The lingering fear of backlash, especially among voters who are perceived as skeptical, is not supported by the data. Two thirds of the public are concerned about the climate crisis and in 99 per cent of constituencies, a majority or a majority believe that government policy should go further and faster. Support for net zero remains strong, even in the face of cost-of-living pressures. Abbreviations of concerns by region, age group and class. Among groups most likely to identify as working class, large majorities express concern and support for climate action, although many feel that climate policy has not yet benefited their communities or has not been implemented fairly.
Effectively, this means that climate can act as a coalition glue rather than a wedge. But only if communicated effectively. The lesson we can take is that Labor should avoid over-reliance on technical or “win-win” arguments when speaking to less engaged audiences. While it remains important to talk about lower bills and energy security, and even more important for the government to deliver both, these are not the messages that change fundamental attitudes. Instead, Labor must rely on narratives that emphasize shared risk and shared responsibility: the impacts that are already being felt in local communities, the duty to future generations and Britain’s role in global leadership.
For a potential prime minister in Burnham, this provides a clear strategic path. First, embed climate within a broader story of ownership and protection, framing it as essential to keeping people safe and securing the future, not as an add-on. Second, ensure that the benefits of climate action are distributed visibly and fairly, ensuring that no one is left behind. And third, maintain messaging discipline: a steady beat of simple, resonant narratives that appeal to voters who are not deeply engaged but are open to persuasion.
Labour’s call must be rooted in hope, pride and competence, not technocratic details. Climate policy, properly communicated, can reinforce these same instincts. It can show that Labor is serious about protecting people’s homes, communities and way of life, while also offering a positive vision for the future.
Labour’s path to success lies in building a coalition that cuts across traditional divisions. Climate, far from being a liability, can be a critical part of that coalition if handled properly. By talking about shared values, demonstrating practical seriousness and offering a hopeful vision, a Burnham-led Labor government can unite voters around a common goal: to protect what matters now and secure a better future for generations to come.
