The US-Israel war with Iran may have fundamentally changed the calculus of power in the Persian Gulf, with US intelligence assessments concluding that Tehran now has the ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz whenever it wants.
That gives Tehran a powerful new tool to disrupt the global economy after months of conflict in the Persian Gulf, according to three people familiar with the assessments.
CNN first reported the findings.
Restriction of maritime traffic
Estimates suggest that, despite a The framework agreement is expected to be officially signed on Friday to reopen the strategic waterway and pave the way for renewed nuclear negotiations, Iran has shown during the conflict that it can severely restrict maritime traffic through the strait and potentially will do so again in the future.
Counterpoint to Iran’s stranglehold
Iran benefits – if Hormuz is kept open
A senior US official told CNN that Iran will not receive any benefits from the framework agreement if it does not keep the Strait of Hormuz open and respect other commitments outlined in the agreement.
The official did not specify the incentives being offered, but said Washington will gradually ease its naval blockade as Iran restores normal shipping traffic.
“If Iran performs, relief comes and American leverage will stay all the way,” the official told CNN.
Another source familiar with the deal acknowledged that Iran’s efforts to cut off energy flows through Hormuz strained relations with some of its key economic partners, including China and the Gulf Arab states.
“Iran pays a price when they do that,” the source told CNN, noting that any future efforts to close the strait would likely entail significant economic and diplomatic costs for Tehran itself.
