The tentative deal that ends President Donald Trump’s four-month war with Iran is welcome, but it brings with it some hard truths. Trump made a terrible mistake starting this war. He pursued it recklessly and in open defiance of the law. The United States is emerging weaker – militarily, diplomatically and economically – and will pay strategic costs for years to come.
The details of the deal are unclear, but the framework announced suggests Trump has won some of the terms he insisted he would. It is a humiliating demotion for him and the nation he leads.
Since the start of the war, he has said that the United States will achieve “total and complete victory” and that Iran must accept “unconditional surrender.” He suggested that regime change would occur. He said Iran would not be allowed “any enrichment” of uranium and that “the United States, working with Iran, will excavate and remove all deeply buried nuclear material” it already holds.
None of this seems to be true. Iran’s hardline government remains in place. The specifics of the nuclear deal are likely to be negotiated over the next two months, but the terms appear to resemble those of a 2015 deal that President Barack Obama negotiated and which Trump scrapped in 2018. He described Obama’s deal as the “worst deal ever” and said it puts Iran on “a path to a nuclear weapon.” He criticized him for failing to force Iran to stop supporting terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and for easing economic sanctions. However, his devastating fight looks set to leave him with a similar deal.
His biggest achievement under the ceasefire is the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping traffic, which will eventually lower the prices of energy and other commodities. This, of course, is simply a return to the pre-war status quo. Iran closed the strait in retaliation, to damage the global economy and increase political pressure on the United States. The move worked, and Iran’s leaders now realize they have a powerful economic weapon.
In the balance, Iran emerges as the strategic winner of the four-month war. It suffered significant losses, including most of its navy, air force, military-industrial capacity and political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who was killed on the first day of the war. However, with the war over, Iran’s leadership can begin reconstruction. The United States, for its part, appears weaker in the eyes of the world. The US military has shown itself unable to defeat a much smaller adversary, despite burning many of its long-range precision missiles and interceptors.
The result hurts that country’s ability to deter other potential adversaries. To begin repairing the damage, the United States would be wise to repair alliances in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, which have been battered by the military and economic effects of the war. The Pentagon will also need to modernize and prepare for wars
of the future. Neither is likely to happen under Trump.
Before the American and Israeli attack began on February 28, Iran’s leadership had endured a miserable 2 1/2 years. The government was much weaker than it had been before the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which Iran has long funded and advised. In response to that attack, Israel significantly reduced Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iranian proxy group.
In Syria, a murderous, Iranian-backed dictator fell, while Iran’s leaders did little to save him. Israel and the United States exposed Iran’s air and missile defense program as paper tigers when they bombed Iranian nuclear sites last summer, curbing its program. All the while, Iran’s currency continued to depreciate and its economy was in shambles. Beginning late last year, Iranians took to the streets to protest, and the regime responded by killing thousands, if not tens of thousands, of them.
All these problems remain and Iran is still weaker than three years ago. But the war has given it leverage it didn’t have when 2026 began. His regime has shown it can survive waves of attacks from its two biggest enemies. Its leaders have not had to abandon their nuclear ambitions. And they have learned that the rest of the world seems unwilling to use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran chooses to close the strait at some point in the coming months or years, what will Trump do in response?
We present these facts without complacency. Iran has been and remains a force for the sick. It oppresses its own people, especially political dissidents, women, LGBTQ+ people, and religious minorities. It is a world leader in torture and executions, and has funded terrorism in its region and far beyond. Iran’s leaders have impoverished a country where per capita income was above the global average until the 1970s.
The regime’s distinct brutality should have been reason for the United States to think carefully and plan carefully for any war. The history of modern American wars, especially in the Iranian region, is full of hubris that incubated defeat. Yet Trump eschewed thoughtful planning at every turn.
He accepted the rosy assessment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who predicted the Iranian regime would soon fall. Trump dismissed the views of his aides who told him that Netanyahu’s prediction was farcical.
Trump ignored the Constitution and refused to seek congressional approval for the war. He did not listen to European and Asian allies who opposed his war. He failed to plan for Iran’s apparent ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. He made threats to destroy Iranian civilization that only succeeded in diminishing America’s moral standing.
For his sins, he has now agreed to a peace framework that the whole world knows is a loss for him.
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
