Fertility rates have been declining for decades, but the decline has accelerated significantly over the past 20 years, and researchers are still trying to fully explain why.
Now, a new study suggests that a device that has come to define modern life may play a role: the iPhone.
The smartphone, first released in 2007, coincides with a turning point in birth trends in the United States and elsewhere. That time prompted American economist Caitlin Myers of Middlebury College in Vermont to investigate whether the two might be connected.
“It’s an interesting question. Why are births falling so fast?” Myers said in an interview. “In the United States, births have fallen by almost a quarter since 2007.”
Her research examines whether increased screen time and the shift towards digital interaction may reduce personal contact, indirectly leading to fewer pregnancies.
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To test the idea, Myers analyzed birth rates across US counties in the first few years after the iPhone was released. At the time, the device was only available through AT&T, meaning some regions had access while others did not.
By comparing those areas and controlling for factors such as income, education and contraceptive policy, she found that birth rates fell faster in places where the iPhone was available.
“We noticed that births fell much faster in places where you can get an iPhone,” Myers said.
The theory is simple: more time spent online can mean less time spent together in person. “It’s hard to get pregnant when you’re not with someone in person,” she told Global News.
Fertility rates are now well below replacement levels in many countries. In the United States, the rate stands at approximately 1.6 children per woman. In Canada it is even lower, around 1.25.
And the trend is not limited to rich countries. Declining births are being recorded around the world.
However, experts warn that smartphones are unlikely to be the sole or even the main cause.
The 2000s brought a number of major social and economic changes that are widely believed to be contributing to the so-called “baby bust.” These include the global financial crisis, rising housing costs, higher levels of education and wider access to contraception.
Celia Chandler, a writer documenting her experience of being “childfree by choice,” says it can be hard to draw a straight line between technology and people choosing not to have children.
“I think it might be a bit of a stretch to say that technology is stopping people from having children,” she said.
Chandler argues that one of the most important changes in recent decades is that more people, especially women, feel empowered to choose whether or not to become parents.
“I feel very lucky to have been born at a time when I had a choice,” she said.
The researchers admit that the iPhone itself is unlikely to explain such a complex global trend on its own, but say it could be part of a broader shift in the way people connect, form relationships and structure their lives.
