YEREVAN – With parliamentary elections this Sunday, Armenia is entering a crucial phase that could change its geopolitical trajectory, ease conflict and help smooth relations with regional neighbors.
On the streets of Yerevan, campaign posters from 18 parties and alliances compete for visibility. Those of current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, depicted forming a heart with his hands, are among the most prominent in the capital.
In office since 2018, Pashinyan currently presides polls with about 32% of the votes.
These elections will test whether he can secure a strong enough parliamentary majority to implement constitutional reforms, including concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan and normalizing relations with Turkey, while continuing a gradual rapprochement with the EU.
This strategic shift has coincided with a gradual distancing from Russia, Armenia’s long-term security partner, even as the country remains heavily dependent on Moscow economically and energy-wise.
“This is not an election that simply divides pro-Russian and pro-Western forces,” says Richard Giragossian, director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan. “But both Moscow and Brussels are closely monitoring the outcome.”
A fragile reorganization after Karabakh
Since Azerbaijan’s military occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and the displacement of more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the disputed territory, relations between Yerevan and Moscow have deteriorated significantly.
Pashinyan accused Russia of failing to provide adequate security guarantees during the offensive, while Armenia has stepped up its diplomatic engagement with the EU along with peace talks with Azerbaijan.
In 2025, Armenia’s parliament passed legislation expressing the country’s intention to pursue EU membership. Successive organization of an EU-Armenia summit and a meeting of the European Political Community in Yerevan at the beginning of May it was also interpreted in Brussels as a signal of political alignment.
EU Ambassador to Armenia Vasilis Maragos noted that Brussels strongly supports Armenia’s efforts to normalize regional relations in the Caucasus, especially with last month’s “connectivity” agreement to increase investment in digital infrastructure, semiconductor production and innovation.
“The connectivity partnership focuses on new projects in the context of peace and normalization in the region, as well as the opening of borders,” Maragos said. Euractiv. “We have already identified three new border crossing points that we will support.”
Turkey-Armenia relations remain fragile
The election result is critical for Armenia’s regional diplomacy.
Benyamin Poghossian, an analyst in Armenia, warned that if Pashinyan fails to secure a majority in parliament, the election result could “undermine not only the normalization process with Azerbaijan, but also that with Turkey.”
Despite the lack of diplomatic relations since 1990, Armenia and Turkey have recently increased their engagementincluding steps towards reopening borders, restoring historic infrastructure such as the Ani Bridge and exploring the revival of the Kars-Gyumri railway line.
In Margara, near the Turkish border and inside Mount Ararat, expectations are rising cautiously among the village of 1,400, where only the region’s famous white storks, known in Armenia as clay, may travel for the time being on their seasonal migrations from one place to another.
“It’s time. Today, Armenian goods have to pass through Georgia to reach Turkey. Opening the border would simplify everything,” said Grigori Voskanyan, a taxi driver operating between Margara and Yerevan, near a border crossing recently renovated with European support.
EU steps up commitment as Russia steps up pressure
From Russia’s perspective, Armenia’s gradual departure from Moscow’s traditional role as the “gatekeeper of the Caucasus” is increasingly sensitive, especially as Yerevan deepens its engagement with Brussels.
On Saturday, Russia recalled its ambassador to Yerevan for consultations on Armenia’s growing ties with the EU. At the same time, Moscow has intensified economic pressure through new restrictions on Armenian exports, including agricultural products, flowers and mineral water.
Russian authorities cite sanitary and technical concerns, but the measures are widely seen in Yerevan and Brussels as politically motivated.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, DESCRIBED restrictions as “unacceptable economic hardship” and officials are exploring measures to support Armenian exporters and diversify trade routes.
EU officials say the bloc is also increasing support for regional connectivity and border infrastructure projects.
A delicate balancing act for Yerevan
Despite rising tensions, analysts argue that a complete break with Russia remains unlikely in the short term.
Poghossian noted that Moscow maintains a strategic presence in Armenia, particularly through the deployment of border guards along the Armenian-Iranian border. That region is where the Trump Peace and Prosperity Initiative, a US-backed regional road project linking Armenia and Azerbaijan in southern Armenia, is expected to be implemented. It plays a central role in the ongoing peace negotiations with Baku.
“Theoretically, Russia could block this project,” Poghossian said.
“Russia has many tools at its disposal,” he added, noting the potential impact, including on energy prices, transport links and financial transfers.
Given this leverage, some members of the Armenian opposition have criticized Pashinyan for weakening traditional ties with Russia. However, analysts argue that the government’s approach remains largely pragmatic.
“The current government understands that EU membership remains a distant prospect,” Giragossian said. “His main objective is to adapt the country to the new reality after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
Internal tensions over the direction of foreign policy
Pashinyan’s main opponent, businessman Samvel Karapetyan (who is currently polling at 12.5%) and his Strong Armenia party, is capitalizing on public discontent over the Karabakh conflict and fears of Russia’s negative influence on the country and its economy.
During a rally in Yerevan’s Republic Square on June 3, hundreds of his supporters gathered, including displaced families from all over Armenia. Karapetyan, who is currently under investigation for money laundering and it is suspect who was acting on behalf of Russian interests, had to communicate with his supporters via a pre-recorded video message.
“We want to stay close to Russia, not the European Union,” supporter Danik Avetisyan told the rally. “Listen, nobody did anything when 100,000 Armenians in Karabakh were attacked by Azerbaijan.”
However, as the vote approaches, the election is seen less and less as a binary choice between East and West, and more as a referendum on how the country manages its geopolitical constraints in a rapidly changing regional order.
(cm, bw, vc)
