In their May 4 meeting in Canberra, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Japanese counterpart, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, agreed upon prioritythere are a number of issues including supply chains, energy, critical minerals, trade and security.
In the framework of the Joint Declaration on Economic Security Cooperation, the leaders also pledged to support Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to combat money laundering through capacity building initiatives. This should be seen by PICs as a positive development, as crime remains one of them the main challenges in the region.
However, climate change, which is recognized by the small island states of the Pacific as their greatest security threat, it was not on the agenda.
The tacit identification of China as a threat to regional stability will please some Pacific Island nations and perhaps embolden others. Overall, however, the strengthening of Australia-Japan ties is extremely positive for a diverse region.
Multilateralism is essential to the diplomatic and economic functioning of island nations. In light of the United States’ rejection of international institutions and China’s increasingly aggressive actions, its decline is cause for alarm. North Korean missiles flying over Japan and Chinese jets buzzing with foreign aircraft can feel far away from, say, Port Moresby. But Pacific island governments are taking notice, registering and planning for this most controversial era.
Chinese influence on Pacific Island countries is well documented; its economic and security cooperation initiatives in the region have increased in recent decades. The Solomon Islands are closely related to China. Kiribati has welcomed Chinese funding for runway improvementsseen by some analysts as evidence of gray zone military tactics. Luganville Pier in Vanuatu may soon serve a similar “dual use” purpose. – for Chinese merchant and military vessels alike.
The Australian government is aware of these investments (or violations, depending on who you ask). For its part, Japan’s Takaichi government is pushing itself to grow across the islands, adding strong capabilities to its vigorous diplomatic efforts.
In February this year, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi welcomed 28 countries to Tokyo for the third Japan-Pacific Islands Defense Dialogue. Agreements were made with Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Fiji covering maritime security and disaster relief. Koizumi has been clear that the global and regional security environment is deteriorating and that Japan is sharpening its military capabilities and partnerships in response.
Under Koizumi, Japan’s defense budget will now be made exceed 9 trillion yen (about $56 billion), approaching the 2% GDP target well ahead of schedule. Self-defense is the priority, but self-defense will come, in part, in the form of stronger alliances across the Indo-Pacific.
Koizumi’s call for the “autonomy” of Pacific island countries is consistent with this approach and serves as a clear rebuke to China. Japan’s alternative point is to maintain national sovereignty with Tokyo serving as a long-term security partner. This is the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), so to speak. Now in its tenth year, but updated for current circumstances, Japan’s FOIP Vision it is based on freedom of navigation and commerce, as well as the preservation of national sovereignty.
The Albanian government has faced diplomatic obstacles in the Pacific islands, no less the failure of a security and climate pact with Vanuatu in 2025. (A revised version of the Nakamal Agreement was approved by the Vanuatu cabinet in May 2026(but only after clear language limiting China’s security and investment role in the country was removed.)
Australia is sometimes seen as the “other” in the islands or a very close partner of the United States. Therefore, Japan’s renewed focus on the islands will be welcome.
As Japan-Australia cooperation on global challenges intensifies, this will have positive effects on Pacific security.
For example, on April 18, Australia signed contracts for 11 Japanese Mogami-class frigates in a deal worth A$10 billion ($7 billion). This acquisition will strengthen the Royal Australian Navy. The frigates, to be built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, will have a range of up to 10,000 nautical miles – a game changer for Australia’s efforts to protect the maritime sovereignty of the Pacific islands.
The deal was followed by Prime Minister Takaichi’s review of defense export regulations. Now, Japanese firms will be able to they sell deadly weapons in countries with which it has defense equipment and technology transfer agreements, including Australia and New Zealand. Increased exports and improved interaction with Japan’s Self-Defense Forces will be a plus for regional security and stability.
Along with the defense export reform, Japan’s official assistance (OSA) budget for 2026 is doubled to 18.1 billion yen (US$175 million). PNG and Tonga were named priority recipients for the period 2025-2026. Dual-use assets for disaster response and building marine infrastructure have already been awarded to PNG.
Australian policy in the Pacific Island countries has tended to focus on economic support. A record Official Development Assistance worth $2.2 billion (ODA) was committed to the Pacific in the 2026-2027 budget. Climate finance has been generous for some island nations. But the means to maintain national sovereignty have been directed by the marine police and the police. For example, Australia’s Pacific Maritime Security Program, under which 12 Pacific island states plus Timor-Leste have been provided with Guardian-class patrol vessels, is a notable success. In terms of hardware, Japan is now well-positioned to add lethal weapons to the foundations of regional security.
Pacific island nations are too small—economically, militarily, and diplomatically, with very limited resources and capacity—to clearly take sides in superpower rivalry. They also need to be careful about the mid power stretch. That said, outside interests acting in good faith to preserve, not erode, national sovereignty are to be welcomed. To this end, Australian economic aid and Japan’s more advanced defense approach are opportunities to be exploited.
The concept of rowing between reefs—finding a path through turbulent geopolitical waters without getting caught on one side of a conflict—has become somewhat of a cliché in international affairs. But it is certainly the best way for Pacific island nations to maintain national sovereignty and ensure prosperity in an era of escalating confrontation.
Moses Sakai is the Vasey Resident at the Pacific Forum, a Hawai’i-based foreign policy think tank. He was previously a research fellow at the PNG National Research Institute and a visiting scholar on US foreign policy at the University of Delaware.
Originally published by Center for Development Policy located in Crawford School of Public Policy IN Australian National Universitythis article is reprinted with permission.
