Just after 1 a.m. on Friday, the Romanian military detected a number of Russian drones flying “in the vicinity” of the country’s airspace. The drones were part of a major strike in neighboring Ukraine, but the Romanians attacked two F-16 fighter jets and a helicopter with orders to “engage targets” if they crossed into their territory. The military tracked a drone on radar as it headed toward Galati, a port city on the Danube River in southeastern Romania.
But the pilots could not shoot down the drone without endangering civilians. It crashed into the roof of a 10-story building, causing a fire wounding a 53-year-old woman and a 14-year-old boy, who were taken to the hospital. The Foreign Ministry of Romania, which is a member of NATO, denounced the drone attack as a “serious and irresponsible” escalation by Russia. NATO condemned Moscow’s “recklessness” and pledged to strengthen the alliance’s defenses “against all threats.”
It is unlikely that the Kremlin deliberately targeted Romania. Russian forces were attacking Ukrainian infrastructure across the border in Odesa at the time, and it is entirely plausible that one of the drones was knocked off course. This is not the first time that Russian drones have crossed into Romanian territory either: numerous fragments of drones have been found in the country since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. Last month there were reports that a drone had crashed on the outskirts of Galati.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have all triggered emergency alerts in recent weeks after Ukrainian drones bound for Russia lost their way and inadvertently entered their territories. Lithuania’s president and prime minister were rushed to air raid shelters on May 20 and residents of the capital, Vilnius, were told to take shelter after reports of an incoming drone. Two people in Poland, which is also a NATO member, were killed in 2022 when a Ukrainian air defense missile mistakenly exploded during a Russian attack and hit a small farming village in the east of the country.
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These seemingly inadvertent incursions reflect the increasing use of medium- and long-range airstrikes — and increasingly sophisticated electronic defenses — on both sides, as Russia, failing to make headway on the ground, tries to pound Ukraine into submission from the air. Kyiv is taking the fight deeper into Russian territory, targeting oil refineries and other energy-related infrastructure with its long-range drones. Russia also appears to be probing NATO’s defenses, stepping up its hybrid warfare campaign across the continent with sabotage and arson attacks that fall below the threshold of conventional warfare. NATO has scrambled Polish and Dutch warplanes after more than a dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace in September 2025, shooting down several and prompting the country’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, to warn that it was “the closest we have come to open conflict since World War Two”.
NATO has promised to strengthen its air defenses, particularly along the alliance’s eastern flank, with more air patrols and air defense systems, starting with an operation known as Eastern Sentry, which will be anchored in Poland. But the scale of the task is considerable as the alliance struggles to adjust to the rapidly changing nature of warfare and the destructive potential of relatively inexpensive drones, compounded by decades of underinvestment in defense industrial capacity among major European powers, where political leaders tended to treat major interstate wars as a relic of the last century until Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin has long relied on fears of an escalating conflict across Ukraine’s borders among the country’s allies and partners to temper Western military aid to Kiev. At regular intervals since the start of the war — and especially after significant Russian military setbacks — he has implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia is pushed to the brink of defeat. Russia has targeted Ukraine with nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles at least three times since the conflict began, most recently on May 24, which many analysts interpret as the Kremlin signaling its capabilities. Russia has also deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and held large-scale nuclear drills in both countries earlier this month.
Indeed, with the Russian offensive stalled again, an estimated 500,000 Russian soldiers dead, the Russian economy under serious strain and rumors swirling of a large-scale mobilization, the Kremlin is again issuing bloody threats to escalate the conflict, urging European diplomats to evacuate Kyiv. On May 25, the Russian foreign ministry warned of “systemic attacks” targeting the Ukrainian capital and told all foreign citizens to leave the city “as soon as possible.”
When European missions refused to budge, insisting they would stay in a city that had already been under concerted attack for the past four years, Russian officials stepped up their threats. “The EU has said it will maintain its diplomatic presence… despite Russia’s warnings,” former Russian president-turned-social-media-provocateur Dmitry Medvedev posted on X on May 26. “Well, apparently they have diplomats to spare and need to downsize.”
Russia’s threats should not be discounted lightly. The more the Russian military fights on the battlefield, the more we should expect Putin to focus on trying to intimidate Ukraine’s supporters, rattling his nuclear saber and issuing more threats of war. This approach has worked before, when Joe Biden was in power and after Donald Trump returned to the White House last year, with both presidents apparently convinced that if Russia was pushed too far, the conflict could escalate into a new world war. At the same time, some European intelligence agencies have warned that if Russia is allowed to dominate Ukraine, it may be able to launch a attack on a NATO member before the end of this decadewith the aim of finally dismantling the North Atlantic alliance.
The truth is that, as the drone strike in Romania and Moscow’s threats against European diplomats clearly illustrate, this conflict was never confined to Ukraine’s borders. Putin has long emphasized that he is waging a war against the wider West – and NATO in particular – over the future of European security. It is high time that European leaders accept this reality. If they fear the dangers of a defeated, vengeful Russia, imagine what might follow a Russian victory.
(Further reading: As the world moves around us, Ukraine struggles)
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