The China factor
The evolution of the Quad cannot be understood without acknowledging China’s role. Its resurgence in 2017 was widely seen as a response to Beijing’s growing influence across the Indo-Pacific, from naval assertiveness in the South China Sea to infrastructure diplomacy under the Belt and Road Initiative and dominance in critical supply chains. That underlying context remains relevant today, but its articulation is less pronounced.
This is a deliberate choice shaped by several factors. India has long resisted any formal military framework, preferring strategic autonomy and flexibility. Southeast Asian countries remain wary of binary geopolitical blocs that could force alignment choices. Even Australia and Japan, while strengthening defense cooperation with the US, recognize the importance of maintaining broad regional acceptance. His messages increasingly emphasize reducing vulnerabilities in supply chains, energy systems, digital infrastructure and maritime security rather than holding a country back.
The US-China recalibration and its impact
The evolution of the Quad is also taking place in the context of changing US-China relations. Washington continues to see Beijing as its main long-term strategic competitor. However, his approach has become more calibrated in recent years, moving away from outright disengagement towards “deforestation”, selective engagement and managed competition. It has direct implications for the Quad. Rather than serving as a strong security alliance, the Quad is increasingly seen as a flexible network for building resilience in key sectors – particularly semiconductors, critical minerals, energy security and advanced technologies.
This shift is reflected in recent initiatives such as the Quad Critical Minerals Framework. Global supply chains for rare earths and critical minerals remain heavily concentrated in China, creating vulnerabilities in industries ranging from electric vehicles and semiconductors to defense manufacturing. Quad’s response is framed as diversification, building alternative supply chains.
Similarly, the Quad Initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security reflects the growing recognition that power outages are no longer purely economic events, but strategic risks with regional consequences. In this sense, the Quad is increasingly moving away from traditional military balancing toward what can be described as systemic balancing, a strategy to strengthen the underlying structures that support regional stability.
Beyond summit diplomacy
One of the most discussed aspects of the New Delhi meeting was the lack of clarity on the upcoming Four Leaders Summit. Since the leaders’ summits were set up in 2021, they have become central to the Quad’s political visibility. They provided direction, symbolism and momentum. However, maintaining this pace has become more difficult due to complex global diplomatic calendars, shifting geo-political quicksand and ties between India and the US. The lack of announcement this time was notable because previous joint statements usually identified the next host of the summit. Instead, the ministers expressed only a general expectation for future meetings.
The Quad can operate through engagement in a wide range of working groups covering maritime security, counter-terrorism, infrastructure, emerging technologies, health security and supply chains. Foreign Ministers have met three times in 18 months, showing that coordination is increasingly functional.
Platform for strategic public goods
A defining feature of the Quad’s evolution is its increasing emphasis on providing strategic public goods for the Indo-Pacific. This includes maritime domain awareness tools for smaller states, disaster response coordination mechanisms, trusted digital infrastructure, resilient submarine cable networks, energy security initiatives and supply chain diversification. Fiji’s port infrastructure initiative announced in New Delhi reflects this approach. Instead of competing in geopolitical signaling, the Quad is focusing on targeted infrastructure projects that address real regional needs.
